Why Buying Out Alex Burrows Makes Sense

I know right?!? You’re already disgusted. You love Alex Burrows. But hear me out on this.

Forget a rock and a hard place; the Canucks are laid out on a torture table having their limbs extended in difficult positions with their current cap situation. 17 players signed, no 3^rd or 4^th line centre and according to Capgeek  a mere $47,222 to pull it off. Oh and still needing to sign restricted free agent defenceman Chris Tanev.

Trading Luongo this weekend at the draft goes some way to alleviate some concerns but if making 1 final push for a Stanley Cup is the goal, that’s still not enough money cleared out to fill the pieces and contend with the likes of Chicago, LA, St. Louis in the West let alone Pittsburgh or Boston should you run into them in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Compliance buyout season is in full swing with the likes of Daniel Briere, Ilya Bryzgalov and Vincent Lecavalier being told they will now be paid not to play for the respective teams. David Booth and Keith Ballard have spent the last season with bright “BUYOUT CANDIDATE” lights flashing above their heads. And they’ve had their reasons to warrant a buyout. But Booth can’t be bought out with his current injury status, so barring a miracle recovery we’re stuck with him for now or until the 2014 compliance buyout window. Aside from Luongo, Keith Ballard has really been the only other option to carve out cap space. We’ll get back to him.

Since the beginning of the Boston series when all of the Canucks seemingly hit the never ending snooze button offensively, Alex Burrrows has posted 4 goals. By comparison, the much maligned Mason Raymond has tallied 3 times while averaging substantially less ice time than Burrows. But this is not new news; I’m not unveiling some secret flaw about Burrows’ or the Canucks inability to score these recent playoffs. We already know this. However what’s different about the past than the future is that the recently turned 32 Alex Burrows will begin to be a cap hit of $4.5 million per season over the next 4 years, instead of his previously friendly $2 million a year contract. And what we don’t know yet is the talent ceiling for Zack Kassian.

To go the buyout route for any player, his value to the team has to be assessed. What is Alex Burrows value to the Canucks? To play alongside the Twins? To kill penalties? It’s definitely not on the power-play given he has 10 career power-play goals (19 career points) and only 1 this past year, Burrows’ usage on the power-play is virtually nil. Paying $4.5 million to a player for his goal-scoring prowess only to see better options to take his place on the 1^st unit power-play is simply unfeasible.

If Alex Burrows remains on this team, the expectation is that he will play alongside the Twins further stunting the development of Kassian. The Sedins’ have built a reputation for making any player next to them succeed. It’s one of the easier jobs in the NHL to which the likes of Taylor Pyatt, Anson Carter, and Trent Klatt have showcased their ability to fit in and make it work. Also on a much smaller sample size Kassian. There is little to no evidence to suggest Kassian can’t succeed with the Twins, meanwhile there are 3 years of playoff exit evidence to show you that Burrows with the Twins come playoff time doesn’t work. And every highlight you see is of them being younger. How much longer do we keep trying to run the same scenario hoping for a different result? Yes, Kassian could find a role next to Ryan Kesler but with David Booth seemingly back, is a line with 2 power-forwards and 0 puck- facilitators for Kesler really going to be a fit? To maximize his potential, Kassian playing with the Twins on his rookie contract makes the most sense. Testing to find the potential in an expanded role is far better than stuffing Kassian on another line in limited minutes. I can guarantee you that will end up with him being labelled a bust.

Let’s examine the top 10 penalty kill teams in the league and see what type of money was committed to each team’s top 2 forward penalty killers based on Average Time On Ice: (The Canucks ranked 8^th and are bolded/italicized)

Team:	PK %:	Top 2 Penalty Killers based on ATOI:	2012-13 Cap Hit Avg. Top 2 PKers:
Ottawa Senators	88.0%	Kyle Turris / Erik Condra	$1.0 million
Toronto Maple Leafs	87.9%	Jay McClement / Nikolai Kulemin	$1.9 million
Chicago Blackhawks	87.2%	Marcus Kruger / Michael Frolik	$1.6 million
Boston Bruins	87.1%	Patrice Bergeron / Gregory Campbell	$3.3 million
Philadelphia Flyers	85.9%	Max Talbot / Ruslan Fedotenko	$1.5 million
San Jose Sharks	85.0%	Michael Handzus / Joe Pavelski	$3.3 million
St. Louis Blues	84.7%	Scott Nichol / Vladmir Sobotka	$1.0 million
Vancouver Canucks	84.0%	Jannik Hansen / Alex Burrows	$1.7 million
Edmonton Oilers Canucksan Fedotenkokeme of money was committed to them:  even a small spell last year Andrew Ebbett have showcased the	83.4%	Eric Belanger / Lennart Petrell	$1.3 million
Los Angeles Kings	83.2%	Jarrett Stoll / Trevor Lewis	$2.0 million

It should be noted that Kyle Turris begins a 5 year contract worth $3.5 million per season starting next year, and Erik Condra will get a raise on his previous $625k hit but even figuring an aggressive raise to $1.75 million (which he won’t get) brings the Senators average to $2.3 million for the #1 penalty kill in the league.

Now once you factor in Burrows’ new contract, that previous number of $1.7 million balloons up to $2.9 million. You’ll notice that 2 teams still remain above the Canucks in the Cap Hit average, but the difference is those teams feature a centre man to win faceoffs on the PK with Patrice Bergeron and Joe Pavelski. And even then, Bergeron’s cap hit is only $500k more than Burrows. So starting next season, of the top 10 PK’s in the league the Canucks will be committing the most money to a penalty killer that isn’t winning faceoffs. When you add in Ryan Kesler for faceoffs to make a Kesler-Burrows PK tandem (used together over 15% of PK's in 2011-12), that becomes $9.5 million of cap space devoted to your penalty kill when the average for the other top 9 teams is $1.9 million.

The inability to buyout Booth means that this is the chance to buyout Burrows. With a new coach who has shown he can get the most out of his defencemen and only at age 30, Keith Ballard can still audition for another season to see out his entire contract with the Canucks. Both he and David Booth would remain as buyout candidates in June 2014. So the question becomes, in 2 years what would you rather: Being done with a 32 year old Keith Ballard who could still play a low pairing role as it stands, or even perform to even moderate expectations under a new coach that gives him a clean slate. Or a 34 year old Alex Burrows, who at age 32 is already slowing down while stealing developmental time from 1^st rounder Zack Kassian, with still 2 more years remaining on a $4.5 million contract.

Along with a Roberto Luongo trade and an Alex Burrows buyout, the Canucks can etch out nearly $10 million in cap space and better utilize that money. A backup goaltender can be found for low cost and Kassian on his rookie contract already replaces Burrows on the top line. And given the cost of effective penalty kills, replacements can be found to eat up the time Burrows spends penalty killing. Not to mention having Ryan Kesler healthy and already having Jannik Hansen and Chris Higgins to play the non-centre PK roles.  8 of those top 10 PK teams made the playoffs including both Cup Finalists. Excluding Hansen, only 6 players from that list (Condra, Kulemin, Kruger, Bergeron, Pavelski, Lewis) were drafted by their current team. Penalty killers can be acquired and on the cheap.

Buying Burrows out gives you long term cap flexibility, allows you to maximize the potential for Zack Kassian and continues to give you valuable defensive depth by holding onto Keith Ballard for at least 1 more season. Pointing to Burrows leading the team in goal scoring this post-season isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement since his output was 2, amongst a team that has forgotten how to score once it reaches Game 83 (or 49 in a lockout year). Making a case of “Well the Twins didn’t get going during the playoffs and Burrows suffered as well” only gives credence that we need the Sedin’s to get the 3^rd line mate going, and if that’s the case, the 3^rd line mate can cost a lot less than Alex Burrows once he’s bought out.