Friday, February 1, 2013

Bik's Super Bowl 47 Pick: Being Elite

Here are things that will happen on February 4th:
 -          A Super Bowl MVP will be in DisneyLand
-          A team will have a championship parade
-          A Quarterback from the winning team will be labelled as elite

Joe Flacco or Colin Kaepernick will not only try to out-score each other, but best each other for this label of Elite QB.

Why do we rush to label players as elite especially in big games? Is it because it’s easier to believe that someone that is elite is going to win? Years down the road we want to remember the important moments of a Super Bowl and that they were made by elite players capable of making those plays. Super Bowl winners like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson are routinely used as the butt end of jokes because they’re Super Bowl champs but somehow undeserving just because they weren’t elite. Meanwhile the past winners of the Lombardi Trophy have names like Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger. We’ve slipped into an area where only elite QB’s can win and you need one of those to be a contender. And yet, we’re 48 hours away from a QB perhaps being falsely labelled as an Elite QB.

What is elite? Where does it stop? Of the two QB’s Flacco is generating more of the elite talk simply because his sample size is larger.  And with a 49ers loss, the style of QB that Kaepernick is will be questioned as a fad rather than a revolution. But with a 49ers win, it will be near impossible not to accept this new wave of QB with Kaepernick leading the charge followed by Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson. And in a blink of an eye Flacco slips into the conversation of QB’s who can’t get it done. The extreme perceptions these two will face will once the clock hits 0:00 will be incredible. But the truth is that both QB’s will be unfairly judged following this game and heading into next season.

The truth is there can only be so many elite QB’s. The list can’t continue to grow and our desire to force players into it is maddening.

Flacco’s body of work does not suggest that he is an elite QB, even with a Super Bowl win. Not to mention Kaepernick’s sample size is far too small for him to make the leap into the upper-echelon. Neither was a top 10 QB in completion percentage, yards per game, or Touchdowns. But still we’ll be ready to anoint one of these two come Sunday night.

Don’t be so quick to lump either of these QB’s into the same field of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. Because that’s who the elite are and are consistently elite. You can only have so many players be “elite” before the word itself loses its meaning. So while come kickoff on Sunday, while neither of these QB’s, the two teams competing are elite. And that’s how this game should be judged, not just Flacco/Kaepernick’s battle against each other and public perception, but how these two teams fare against each other. And really the margin is so very thin. And that’s what should be exciting to see and what will be remembered for years to come.

So before I get to the final pick of the football season, I want to thank you for reading this season. It’s been fun to do this and while weeks went up and weeks went down, I’m looking forward to doing this next season and improving on the above .500 record I had this year.

Ravens (+3.5) over 49ERS
The thing I like about the Ravens is that they can use their strengths to attack the 49ers weaknesses. The 49ers defence has given up a lot of points so far through the playoffs and while the team is equipped to play catch-up now with Kaepernick, I don’t see Baltimore being as conservative like Atlanta if they get a lead. Flacco’s ability to throw the ball deep with power and accurately will continue to press the 49ers and they haven’t shown the same ability to pressure the QB during the playoffs like they did in the season. And while Kaepernick is plenty capable of big-plays both with his feet and his arm, the Ravens seem more equipped to combat the aerial threat as they’ve kept both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in check for the big plays downfield than the Falcons showed 2 weeks ago.

There are a few things I can’t get away from when it comes to San Francisco. The biggest one being that teams they faced were vastly different than what they will face on Sunday. Green Bay and Atlanta, while very good teams, are also finesse teams. The last 2 teams to play a tough physical game with San Francisco were Seattle and St. Louis, both losses for the 49ers. That’s precisely what the Ravens will bring against the 49ers.

With the fine margins this game is going to have, it’s the finer points what might matter... and special teams is where the Ravens excel and have a clear advantage. David Akers frightens me with his 69% on field goals while Justin Tucker is booting it through the uprights at a 90% clip. Their return game is also superior.

This piece kicked off with things that will happen on February 4th, and here’s 1 more for the list: People will look back at the journey to the Championship. Baltimore has so much going for it and they are playing at a level driven on by momentum. From Torrey Smith’s brother dying, the firing of offensive Co-Ordinator Cam Cameron, The 4th & 29 conversion by Ray Rice, beating their former coach Chuck Pagano in what was 1 of the season’s most amazing stories, The Double OT game vs. the Broncos which included the miraculous play to force OT, the Ray Lewis’ retirement, Ed Reed’s potential last game as a Raven as well. This is it for Baltimore, and not to say that San Fran won’t give it their all because you never know if you might get back here... but their future is ahead of them. The 60 minutes on Sunday will close the book on many Ravens chapters. They aren’t only fighting San Francisco, they’ll also be fighting the definition of their legacy.

Last Week: 1-0-1
Season: 131-120-4


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