#1 Chicago Blackhawks vs. #8 Minnesota Wild:
Bik: A streak of 24 games with at least a point. 2 potential Hart Trophy candidates, a resurgent year from a former Norris Trophy winner, a Presidents Trophy, a recent Stanley Cup winning team... All this sums up the Chicago Blackhawks, the juggernaut of a #1 seed.... and yet am I crazy to think that Minnesota could actually win this series?
TJ: Uhhh....yes!! For all the reasons you stated above. Minnesota 3 weeks ago was contending for the division, yet they spent the last day of the season facing a literal win-or-you-are-out situation. Can you name me any category where Minnesota is better than Chicago? can you even give me a way they beat the Blackhawks? I am under prepared for this because I thought it would be a one line argument. "Chicago is really good" "yup, next"
Bik: I'm not gonna stand here and say that Minnesota has been better than Chicago because the overwhelming evidence exists that they aren't. But can they be better than them over the next 7 games? I think so.
Here are some realities Chicago needs to face (and while these deficiencies might be fine for Round 1 - they'll find their way out soon):
- You aren't going anywhere with 36 year Michael Handzus as your 2nd line centre (a role he is probably better suited for if Bolland is in the lineup and Handzus has to go to a 3rd line checking role)
- Corey Crawford isn't exactly inspiring a lot of confidence or consistency
- Their bottom 6 is made up of players you definitely don't want in a bottom 6 role. Players like Markus Kruger and Michael Frolik and a slew of unheralded young guys.
They might be the number 1 seed, but they're not without warts and have reaped some benefits from getting to play the likes of Nashville, Columbus, Detroit, 4 times each in this shortened year.
TJ: But Minnesota benefits from playing Edmonton, Calgary and Colorado 4 times each over the year. I will admit I like the role players on Minnesota more, but you can't believe the team that gave up the most goals and scored the least goals of all the West playoff teams has the ability to beat the team that scored the most and gave up the least over a 7 game series. Every argument you just made I could make with Minnesota but to a more successful degree
- You aren't going anywhere with Kyle Brodziak as your 2nd line centre
- Nick Backstrom isn't exactly inspiring a lot of confidence or consistency
- Their bottom 6 is made up of players you definitely don't want.... OK this one you can have.
My prediction? Several Blackhawks are jailed for assault after this series for the utter beat down that is about to occur
Also, when did I become a Blackhawk supporter....
Bik: I think I'm trying to poke holes into this Chicago team now rather than down the road so I can prepare to pick them to lose eventually. But really, the likes of Brandon Pirri, Drew LeBlanc, Jeremy Morin, Jimmy Hayes are going to be your bottom 6? I'm not going to dispute their top level talent, but I feel like Ryan Suter is adequately adept at dealing with that force. Plus there's the whole "Zach Parise's will is stronger than I want to doubt" and I'm not so sure I want to go against that.
This might be a case of I think Chicago is worse than people are making them out to be and I think Minnesota is better than people are making them out to be. I'll go Chicago in 7.
TJ: Oooooooooh, curveball at the end. I am not as confident in Minny. I think they steal game 4 when the 'Hawks get lazy and over-confident but the series ends back in Chi Town. Chicago in 5
#2 Anaheim Ducks vs. #7 Detroit Red Wings
TJ: You argued for upset in the 'Hawks/Wild post (although ultimately went with Chicago) so I guess I will make my case for the underdog this time. I can't imagine life without the Detroit Red Wings in the playoffs. No really, they have been in the playoffs every year I have been alive enough to remember hockey. This year they seem like that low seed team no one wants to play. When it came to crunch time and the wins were needed, wins were delivered.
I missed a good month of hockey but from what I hear the Ducks didn't play as well as their numbers show. Experts always talk about "peaking" at the right time. If there is any team peaking at the right time, it's these Detroit Red Wings.
Bik: While you may have never experienced a playoffs without the Detroit Red Wings, you've also never experienced a Nicklas Lidstrom-less Detroit Red Wings in the playoffs.
Here's a fun fact for you, since losing the the Penguins in the 2009 Stanley Cup Finals (just a reminder its 2013 now), the Detroit Red Wings have only beaten The Phoenix Coyotes in the playoffs. That's it. The whole "pick Detroit because they're Detroit" mystique is over. And there is reason for that to extend here.
I will admit though there is something to be said about peaking at the right time, and Anaheim have looked not only different from the same team earlier in the year, but also a bit unnerved.
TJ: There are two factors that will determine the outcome of this series:
Datsyuk/Zetterberg vs Perry/Getzlaf
Howard vs HIller
Both teams rely heavily on their leaders, and will be looking to them for guidance come playoff time. When it comes down to it, I don't like to bet against Dats and Zets. Not only are they capable offensively (understatement) but they are some of the best defensive forwards in the league. I see Perry and Getzlaf getting frustrated and making poor decisions leading to penalties.
When it comes to goaltending, the Ducks have been flipping back and forth between two decent goalies in Hiller and Fasth, but they are not top 10 goaltenders. Jimmy Howard is. When you need to steal a game you often look to your last line of defence. Howard can steal a game or two for Detroit
Bik: .gif ftw!!!!
Perfectly found gif - well played... That's my main worry with this Ducks team, there will be a game this series where they don't see the puck very often (because of Detroit's puck possession style) and mentally how will they respond? When you see them kicking sticks and slashing the boards it speaks volumes of their mental makeup, but at the same time both players very much play off of their emotions and more importantly have been down this road in the past as Cup Champs. However could a single moment ruin a whole series for them?
I also just remembered who Anaheim is icing for its 6 d-men. You mean they haven't had Scott Niedermayer all season?!?! Why are they the 2nd seed?!?!?!?!?! Oh god why am I maybe picking them to win this series?!?!?!
TJ: Exactly. They don't belong in the #2 seed. I think it has to do with Getzlaf and Perry being in contract years and playing for their next pay cheque (dolla dolla bills y'all). This will be one of the more fun series to watch simply because of the styles they bring. Detroit is the technical master, where Anaheim uses physical strength. As far as Stanley Cup potential....I just don't see it in either. Detroit uses their puck possession to frustrate the Ducks, and with some solid defence backed by a goalie not giving up anything easy you won't see the Ducks get out of the first round.
The Ducks best plan has to be using their size and imposing their will to get the Wings off their game. For lack of a better term, the Ducks need to turn this fight into a brawl. The less pretty this series is, the better chance they have of getting through. Unfortunately they are up against a Mike Babcock coached team, so that won't be easy. It's tough to convince the karate sensei to follow you into the dark alley.
Bik: While Mike Babcock is definitely a huge legacy in Detroit... I kind of have some weird belief in what Bruce Boudreau is trying to do in Anaheim... its kind of the reverse of what he was in Washington... Without the bluster, just getting on and coaching. That might be a product of being in Anaheim but really can't fault what he's done since he got there.
Here's a question for you... With long time assistant general manager Jim Nill leaving, the Yzerman era long over, no more Lidstrom, if they lose this series... is this the beginning of the end for the Detroit that we know? To me this is one of the most fascinating sub plots of the NHL playoffs this year.
TJ: It is already the end of the Detroit we know. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the last year they make the playoffs in their incredible run. You can see they are no longer the power house they once were. But I never like to bet against a Ken Holland team. I give them their one more series win before the wheels finally come off. Detroit in 6
Bik: It's amazing to think that if the 2nd seed wins this match up... It will be an upset... detroit in 6
#3 Vancouver Canucks vs. #6 San Jose Sharks:
TJ: Two teams who are always the brides maid and never the bride. At least this year one of the fan bases won't have to go through weeks of agony before they ultimately fall short.....sorry Shark fans. I just don't feel that the Sharks team of this year is any better than years past. They are just missing.....something. I don't know what it is but they just lack that next gear.
With the Canucks finally getting near healthy, riding a hot goaltender, lead by the best duo in the league....do the Sharks really stand a chance? Don't get me wrong, this won't be a cake walk by any means. But as far as matchups go, if it isn't the Minnesota Wild you want the Sharks....
Bik: you had to include the words "goaltending duo" in this email exchange and force me to go make a meme.
Is that even a point of emphasis at this stage now? If the scenario arises in which the backup has to play that only means the starter got blown out... I don't necessarily agree that having two solid goalies in the playoffs is any sort of decided advantage.
TJ: Why does Wonka have to be so condescending? But you are right only one can play. Still, top to bottom I like the Canucks team more (surprise surprise). Their series a couple years ago when the Canucks went to the finals was almost a cake walk. Not saying this will be the same, but the attitude the Canucks must have after being eliminated in the first round a year after being in the finals. This team is focused and driven and will take care of the Sharks pretty easily. I don't see a defence pairing that can shut down the Sedins, and even if they do, who is going to step up and stop the Roy/Kesler line?
Actually after starting this post I now realize what SJ is missing. A shutdown line. A line you can trust to make sure the other teams top players are not a threat. They just don't have that. Against teams with as much depth as the Canucks that is not going to work out well for you
Bik: I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that while the top end scoring is better on Vancouver, the depth of scoring is better on San Jose. Not that I think that will be a hugely contributing factor in this series. I think defense is the name of the game is this series.
Is Alex Edler's lack of progression into a true #1 dman a sign of regression? I want to see some continued development! Now that's out of the way, this series might actually come down to which defense makes less mistakes (which is also a ringing endorsement to their respective cup credentials)... as simple as that. Both are prone to making ghastly devastating gaffes, so whoever avoids making more might see themselves through to a Round 2 series.
TJ: You look at the names on defence and the instant choice is Vancouver. But the stats show SJ has the better numbers. Where the Canucks have the Sharks beat though is the ability to play lock-down hockey. Say what you will about this season and not playing the greatest defensively, but when this team wants to win games 1-0 or 2-1 they have the ability to do that. It's what got LA and NJ to the cup last year. If the Canucks get down in this series early you can bet coach Vigneault goes to his instincts which is defence first. Nobody wants to see that, but if it's going to win games then go for it.
Don't you have this feeling that there will be a lot of emotion in this series. Both teams are nearing the end of their "window of opportunity" and if either has another first round exit, you have to know big changes are coming. Any team that makes it to the Conference Finals and follows it up with two first round exits is begging for a shake up.
Bik: Hmmm - the reverse could be true. That with both teams nearing the end of that window, they could be cautious and devoid of emotion. It really wouldn't surprise me if this was the lowest scoring series in the playoffs.
There's really nothing about San Jose that concerns me to make them a viable playoff contender. They lack suitable forward depth and flexibility, their defence pairings seem to be paired together due to attrition rather than suitability. Really the only bright spot for them is Antti Niemi, but I don't know if he strikes me as a guy who can win an entire series on his own. This might play out with the Canucks taking an early 3-0 and taking at least 60 minutes off. Canucks in 6.
TJ: Give me Nucks in 5
#4 St. Louis Blues vs. #5 Los Angeles Kings:
Bik: Before I start this email - give me a moment to go rush and put my Team Canada Drew Doughty jersey on.....
(afk)
Ok back - whoooooooooo!!!! Let the man-crush continue. Also just want to point out to TEP Readers that I'm a devout Vancouver Canuck fan but a perpetual Drew Doughty fan. So to remedy the conflict of interests I got a Team Canada jersey so my allegiance isn't questioned. But I will be irrational about Drew Doughty.
Last year, I called LA an underrated team - only because they were miscast as an 8 seed. This year, I'm calling them the best team in the West. There's really no team built like them. And more importantly, they're built SPECIFICALLY for this. They're built to beat the pulp out of you so by games 6 and 7 (and to steal/modify a line from Bane here) they break your spirit or your body.
Here's the funny thing though. Of all the teams in the West that might be able to pull off an upset, St. Louis style might lend itself to be the perfect antidote to the defending Champion LA Kings. They play to limit chances (24.2 shots against per game, 2nd in the league), and push you wide so you don't get clean scoring opportunities. And if you do want to chip it in and fore-check (which LA will want to do), they just happen to have 3 of the smoothest skating d-men to maneuver out of trouble and all who possess good first passes capabilities in Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk and Jay Bouwmeester.
From a pure hockey perspective, this series might be the best of all 8. Tough as nails, shrewd coaching, old school feel to it. I'm excited for this one.
TJ: I think old school feel is the best way to put this. This series has potential to be the most physical, most grueling series we see. For anyone else in the West this was a dream come true. Both teams play a playoff style of hockey that is brutal to play against. And lucky for those in the West, one of them won't make it to the second round, and bonus feature, they beat each other up first before one gets through. This will be the series I watch outside of the Canucks the most. It's going to get heated, and it's going to be exciting,
Oh right, I have to pick a winner....oh jeez. The LA Kings roster is relatively the same as last year's Stanley Cup winning team so you have to bet they aren't going to be a pushover, but I think the difference makers are the three names you mentioned before. Pietrangelo, Shattenkirk and Bouwmeester. LA loves the chip-n-chase, but these guys love countering that. Factor in the sweep last year and you know St. Louis is going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder
Bik: Pre-Season I picked St. Louis to represent the West in the playoffs because much like LA they're built in a fashion to beat you up and not lose 4 out of 7. And this might be David Backes' coming out party. He might be 1 of the NHL's hidden gems (or at least less publicized players). He's a big bruising Centre that is also remarkably sound in his own zone and generated some Selke buzz last year.
I'm trying to see what team has an advantage where but wow is any edge ever razor thin. They're similar in so many respects.
- Built down the middle: Kopitar-Richards-Stoll for LA / Backes - Macdonald - Steen for StL
- Quick thinking, faster skating, smart passing d-men: Doughty-Voynov for LA / Pietrangelo-Shattenkirk,
- Stay at home shut-down d-men Scuderi-Regehr for LA / Jackman for StL
- Wingers who can throw the body around: Brown-Penner-Clifford for LA / Oshie-Stewart-Reaves for StL
- Skilled creative players: Carter-Williams for LA / Perron-Tarasenko for StL
And a lot of those players double up in multiple roles as well. So when the matchup is this close - what do you look towards...... Goaltending..... that might be the difference. You see it the same way?
TJ: And even there the edge doesn't get easy to decide. Reigning Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Quick will man one end, while Brian Elliott and his 12 shutouts in his last 62 games played will man the other. If there is one area of difference between the two it's Quick's 32 playoff games vs Elliott's 12. This is one series where the outcome could be decided by which goalie slips first. It's not going to be a high scoring affair, that's for sure.
If ever the term winning in the trenches comes into play it has to be this series. Games will literally be won by who can capitalize on mistakes and make the most of their few opportunities. Depth on each team will be tested and I will be bold enough to say that for at least one game, someones fourth line plays hero. Because looking down the lineups, it will be so evenly matched, that you have to look at the weakest links.
Bik: Let's try to see if there's a difference amongst them on Special Teams:
LA: 83.2% PK rate / 19.9% PP Rate
StL: 84.7 PK Rate / 19.5% PP Rate
OH COME ON!!!!!
Ok, ok we've established that these teams are borderline identical. But why am I picking St. Louis? Well for starters I picked them pre-season and I'll keep my word. Second, they might be LA just 1 year later. That same hunger and desire to play a higher intensity than anyone else. The old adage "sometimes you need to lose before you can win" might apply to this Blues team (this is the only solace for Canucks fans). I'll take the Blues in 6.
TJ: Why am I taking St. Louis? Because after going 1-10 against LA over the last two seasons you just have to think their fortunes have to change right? My pick is purely on a "I won't cheer for the team that knocked me out last year so F@#k 'em" basis. St. Louis in 7 (like OT game 7 because that's what this series will come down to. 1 goal)
TJ: Why am I taking St. Louis? Because after going 1-10 against LA over the last two seasons you just have to think their fortunes have to change right? My pick is purely on a "I won't cheer for the team that knocked me out last year so F@#k 'em" basis. St. Louis in 7 (like OT game 7 because that's what this series will come down to. 1 goal)
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