NHL Playoffs Conference Semi-Finals Preview Part 1

The 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs continue! TJ went 6-2 last round while Bik went 4-4. The e-mail exchanges continue in Part 1 of the Conference Semi-Finals Preview!

#1 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #7 Ottawa Senators:

TJ: So despite mocking them mercilessly and giving them no hope, I applaud the New York Islanders for almost beating the team many deemed "unbeatable". With that said though, it seems that the Pittsburgh Penguins can score at will, they just had a goalie that made life difficult for them.

I have one hope for this series and it's that I don't have to hear about Cooke/Karlsson Stompgate all series long. It's over it's done move on.

Now onto this series. Interesting matchup here as it appears it will be the Penguins big offensive guns versus Ottawas big (literally) defense. Ottawa had little trouble with Montreals attack (only gave up more than 2 goals once in 5 games). Lets be honest though, Montreals offense doesn't even belong in the same conversation as Pittsburghs. The Pens offense scored 3+ goals in every game against the Islanders. And say what you will about the Islanders defense not being great, 25 goals in 6 games is no small feat. Ottawa is going to have their hands full with this one.

Bik: Yea what the heck. The Islanders?!? Props. Any team that competes and pushes a Stanley Cup favourite to that level when they have over $10 million committed to players to NOT play on their team, gets a huge thumbs up.

And you can immediately kiss your one hope goodbye. Because that's ALLLLLL this series is going to be about. Are you kidding me?! How can you not want this whole series to be about that. We're going to game Game 7 intensity from Game 1. But not even regular Game 7 intensity, imagine if these teams had played 2 Game 7's in consecutive years and they split the series and this was the decider. OOOOH MAN this is gonna be so amazing.

Ottawa is officially a team playing with house money. Pile up all the injuries, the hoopla that went into the last series, and now having to play the Cup favourites? Ok sure the draw sucks but really who is all the pressure on right now? All Ottawa has to worry about is fielding questions about Karlsson/Cooke meanwhile Pittsburgh is completely all in this season and legacies hang in the balance. Not to mention players fates on making the Socchi 2014 team (I'm looking at you Marc-Andre Fleury - you better hope Rangers beat the Capitals because Holtby is coming up on your tail).

They have a top 5 coach (it's official now) in MacLean, and all the inspiration in the world to shock the NHL and pull off a Montreal circa 2010 when they went on a magical run when they knocked off... oh look at that. Pittsburgh in Round 2..... History repeating itself? 

TJ: You are absolutely right with the Senators playing with house money. They have overachieved all year. Which is why it has to come to an end. When you are playing with house money it's because nobody expects you there. And you don't just walk up to the big guy at the table and chuck all your chips at him. He gets pissed off, asks "who are the hell are you?" (which many people ask about half the Sens roster) then sends you home wondering where your pants went.

Pittsburgh already had their scare. They floated into that last series and it nearly cost them. When you realize you almost lost to the Islanders, you sure don't lose to a team like Ottawa that shows legit concern. Ottawa has the tools to win this. It's a pretty easy book on Pittsburgh. Play physical, limit time and space, pressure their defense (if it bothers to show up). Worked for Philly last year and almost worked for the Islanders this year. But Pittsburgh is too well coached to get scared more than once.

I took Ottawa in the first round because I didn't like what Montreal was bringing to the table. I also said that whoever won that series wouldn't get out of the second round. I stand by that.  Inexperience on Ottawas side will catch up, and the big players for Pittsburgh will be too much for the Sens to handle. They were giving up 36 shots a game to the Habs! What's going to happen when players who can actually score start shooting the lights out on Anderson?

Bik: I don't know if its fair to say that they over-achieved. It's more like they persevered. As for Pittsburgh, this is now 2 series in a row that they have played awfully (yes I know they beat the Isles, but they didn't exactly make anyone who picked them to win feel safe). It's going to be strange to say this but Dan Byslma is actually the coaching underdog in this. I mean really, who has more issues on their hand right now?

Byslma has to figure out what's happening in his goal, figure out why his team is suddenly averaging 2.3 more giveaways in the playoffs, and have seen their faceoff % drop 1%. Might seem like I'm nit-picking here but those small differences could be the difference in a series. I really like the matchup in this series. A coaching chess match.

I actually kind of like Anderson's workload. He really strikes me as a goalie that needs that heavy volume to be successful. And as he plays well it'll bring confidence in the team. If the team can draw on that for inspiration rather than focusing their attention on Matt Cooke, I like them to extend the series.

TJ: I think the Bruins/Leafs series perfectly sums up how I feel about this series. An underdog might push the heavy favourites to the brink, but when the chips are down I just think Pittsburgh has more players that can change a game. As each round progresses the lights get bigger and so do the microscopes. Pittsburgh's players have been there, done that. 

Your stats are great but a 6 game sample size is pretty limited....especially for a 1% FO margin (to BEAT their regular season average they would have needed 4....yes 4 more face-off wins). I mean look how deep you have to dig to find a reason why the Senators might win. That giveaway stat seems scary....til you realize they had only 4 more giveaways than Ottawa (and they played one more game). Here is your coaching chess match, how do you stop the line of Neal-Malkin-Kunitz. Oh good glad you stopped them cause here comes Iginla-Crosby-Dupuis. Oh great stopped that, just need to stop Cooke-Sutter-Morrow from getting their team pumped up. WHEW! We did...OH WTF I HAVE TO STOP CROSBY AGAIN!!! FUUUUUUUUUU.....too deep, too powerful. Ottawas lineup could be the Penguins AHL team.

Bik: The Penguins are just showing what now might be a troubling trend that come playoff time they show a lock of consistency to stay to their style. Whereas when I look at Ottawa, its just perfect consistency to who they are. They know their identity and they aren't going to let anyone break them. Whoever is in the line-up. You're right about Pittsburgh's depth, and it will be their big advantage. But Ottawa does believe and they're playing loose. I'll still take Penguins in 7 though.

TJ: Penguins in 5

#5 Los Angeles Kings vs. #6 San Jose Sharks:

Bik: Well forget the hockey hotbed known as Canada - there's a new home for hockey and its California!

Imagine if the Ducks won their series, we'd have 3 California teams into the next round, FROM THE SAME CONFERENCE, but only 1 Canadian team in all of the NHL advancing (at the time of this writing the 7th and deciding game between the Bruins and Leafs has not started.... but I mean c'mon).

So we have the Defending Champion LA Kings vs. the team who has driven a stake into the Sedin/Luongo era of the Vancouver Canucks, San Jose Sharks... Taking nothing away from the Sharks, because in today's NHL pulling off a sweep is incredible and quite the tall task. But a part of me (and this is at the risk of sounding like Georges St. Pierre) wasn't all that impressed with them in the series. And while the LA - StL series was by far the best and a showcase of everything that is great about hockey, you do wonder how much of a toll it took on the Kings.

With a nice rest and getting the opportunity to meet a beat up team... Are the Sharks primed to take a bite out of NHL Royalty? #DoubleWordPlay

TJ: *slow clap for puns* You are right about the Sharks not looking that great. Take out the one blowout game against Vancouver and they won the other three games by a combined 4 goals. Two of them in overtime. They won, and handedly, but didn't exactly BLOW Vancouver out of the water. What SJ needs to worry about is playing a team that likes to get physical and in your face. The Canucks weren't tough enough on the Sharks, which is what you need to do.

LA dodged a bullet in cleaning up their series in 6 games. That series could have been an absolute energy sucker had it gone the full 7 games. And wrapping that series up in 6 also gives them 3 full days of rest before they play again. I much rather that scenario than sitting on the sidelines for what seems like forever to see your next opponent (it was forever ago that the Sharks Canucks series started right? or did I just black that memory out?). It has been beaten to death but lets say it one more time. LA is built for the playoffs. That team is so tight defensively (10 goals against in 6 games) that you just don't see the time or space to make things happen. And with the talent they have up front, it only takes on mistake (ask Brian Elliott) to lose a game against them.

Bik: That was 1 of the most infuriating things about the Sharks-Canucks series is watching Joe Thornton just loop allllllll the way around the offensive zone unharmed and untouched. What happened to taking away elite playmakers time & space?!? Wait I'm launching into an anti-Canuck rant......

Aaaand back to square one. Hey you're right about the Sharks needing to worry about the physicality that LA will bring... but doesn't LA have to worry about the *ahem* theatricality from San Jose? In games of tight margins, power play advantages might pile up. And its not just those 2 minutes you have to worry about. Constant penalty kills really change how line rotations work and can disrupt the flow of the bench. And the Sharks certainly showed that they have the wherewithal to strike on the PP and make you pay.

Antii Niemi is certainly a step up in calibre than Brian Elliot but I'm still supremely sceptical of this San Jose d-core because I don't think they were sufficiently tested vs. the Canucks (ugh more heartbreak).

TJ :They really weren't tested. The Canucks just circled the perimeter and never made any real attempts to get in Niemis kitchen. LA will drive that net hard, play physical along the boards and rope SJ into their style of play (oh god I'm leaning LA....isn't that sacrilegious?).  I just have zero confidence in the Sharks. I can't possibly see them beating them in any aspect. The way they beat the Canucks, the Kings won't allow. Scoring on the PP will be tough on fewer opportunities, there won't be a lot of free space, and there sure as hell won't be as soft a defense as the Canucks put up. Deep down inside I knew that this Kings team had the chance to repeat, and after taking out the Blues (who I thought had a legit chance at the Cup) LA is arguably facing a down-grade in competition who may have had a few too many days off to think things through.

Bik: It definitely isn't sacrilegious - you're talking to Drew Doughty Super Fan haha..... but it might be. Are we as Canucks fans really in the position where we can pick and choose who we hate? Don't we just hate our own franchise right now? Food for thought on another day.

We also said the same thing about the Sharks vs. the Canucks that we couldn't possibly see them winning. And yet here we are. But I don't think a veteran, championship team like LA will exercise the luxury of taking a team lightly. Especially after they got a punch in Round 1 and woke up after losing the 1st 2 games against St. Louis. Remember how abysmal the Canucks playoff record was over the past 15 games. The Kings are 20-6 in their last 26 playoff games.

Do you give the Sharks even a punchers chance to maybe steal a game early and make things interesting? 

TJ: They have enough talent for a punchers chance. The emergence of Pavelski and Couture have eased the load off Marleau and Thornton which lets them be more dangerous. ESPECIALLY with big boy Brent Burns crowding up the net. It's just that though. A punchers chance. 

Lets say LA in 5

Bik: I'm intrigued by the potential of the Kings getting into a track meet game vs. the Sharks. But I just don't see the Sharks being able to dictate the tempo to suit their style that many times and have it go in their favour 4 games. Kings in 5.