2013 Fantasy Football Positional Rankings: Wide Receiver

The 2013 Fantasy Football Season is nearly here. But before you can trash talk your friends, scour the waiver wire for the next fantasy gem, and win a championship, you have to get prepared for the Draft. Bik Nizzar will get you ready for the upcoming fantasy season as The Extra Period continues its Fantasy Football Positional Rankings.

Yesterday I called Quarterbacks the deepest position in fantasy and that was partially due to the relation of players to teams. You could be in a 12 team league and find a legitimate #1 Fantasy QB. Today we jump into Wide Receiver ranks and looking at sheer volume of players it’s also remarkably deep, but relating it to the size of your league, it might be prudent to jump on some of the talent when available in your draft. More details about some players who could regress or progress  next week . Below the ranks are some details for the current spots in their tiers. Without further adieu the 2013 Fantasy Football WR Ranks:

Updated July 24^th

1	Calvin Johnson	21	Steve Smith	41	Kendall Wright
2	Brandon Marshall	22	Danny Amendola	42	Lance Moore
3	A.J. Green	23	Antonio Brown	43	Chris Givens
4	Dez Bryant	24	Dwayne Bowe	44	Golden Tate
5	Percy Harvin	25	James Jones	45	Alshon Jeffrey
6	Demaryuis Thomas	26	Torrey Smith	46	Emmanuel Sanders
7	Roddy White	27	Steve Johnson	47	Malcom Floyd
8	Julio Jones	28	Mike Williams	48	Santonio Holmes
9	Randall Cobb	29	Greg Jennings	49	Anquan Boldin
10	Larry Fitzgerald	30	DeSean Jackson	50	DeAndre Hopkins
11	Vincent Jackson	31	Pierre Garcon	51	Michael Floyd
12	Wes Welker	32	T.Y. Hilton	52	Rueben Randle
13	Victor Cruz	33	Miles Austin	53	Justin Blackmon
14	Reggie Wayne	34	Cecil Shorts	54	Andre Roberts
15	Andre Johnson	35	Danario Alexander	55	Brian Hartline
16	Marques Colston	36	Tavon Austin	56	Doug Baldwin
17	Mike Wallace	37	Jeremy Maclin	57	Darrius Heyward-Bey
18	Jordy Nelson	38	Josh Gordon	58	Robert Woods
19	Hakeem Nicks	39	Kenny Britt	59	Denarious Moore
20	Eric Decker	40	Sidney Rice	60	Vincent Brown

There’s heavy volume here and a lot of tiers so let’s start to examine them. Refer back to the Draft Guide to see what the game plan for WR’s draft strategy is. But we do want certain players from certain tiers to build out your WR Group.

MegaTron:

If you had to guess, what’s more likely to happen? MegaTron getting 1965+ yards and breaking the record he set last year or him getting only 5 TD’s again? I mean, both SEEEEM unlikely, but the 5 TD’s for a WR of his quality just seems bizarrely low. As good of a season as he had, he finished a meager 4 points ahead of Brandon Marshall in standard scoring. But he finds himself in his own tier because he should be the #1 WR taken and really a case can’t be made against it. Last year he had 205 targets with 122 receptions. Both totals should come down but probably not as far as 2011 when MegaTron finished just shy of 1700 yards on 158 targets with 96 catches. The inclusion of Reggie Bush should also help to free up some space so while the usage might not be as much, the yardage should still feature in the same vicinity. Add in a healthy bonus of 5-7 more TD’s (consider he had 16 TD’s in 2011), and MegaTron should once again finish atop the WR scoring for a 3^rd straight year.

Marshall – Bryant:

Of the Elite 4, Green only trailed MegaTron by 20 points or 1.3 fantasy point per week so you’re loving life if you end up with any of the 4. Marshall finishes in the 2^nd spot because of his consistency. You look at his history and if you put him on your roster you can just sit back and say “Yup – ok, I have 95 catches and 1100 yards in the bank.” And really those numbers might be a tad conservative. I think Green has higher upside than Marshall and can still further him game, but Andy Dalton also limits him a bit so he slots in at 3 ahead of Bryant. And the truth is Bryant might have the most upside in this group. From Week 10 onwards Bryant was essentially playing football with a Game Genie and all cheat codes. 14, 20, 24, 21, 11, 11, 34 were his fantasy totals to finish off the season (of course if you’re in a weird league that has the Championship game in Week 17 he tallied 7 points in that Week, but no league should be playing its Title game in Week 17). Something clicked for Bryant partway through the season and hopes are he continues it into this year. However his spotty history most notably his mental makeup that has alarmed fantasy owners in the past is why he slots in at 4.

Harvin – Fitzgerald:

This is a high upside group and really if any are your #1 WR you should be pleased. I know you probably saw the rankings and thought “Harvin @ 5?! That feels like some fan bias in that rank.” And you know what, that’s exactly what it is. I’m not going to hide from it. But truth is before his injury Harvin was having an absolutely unstoppable year. He averaged 12.3 points per week before he got hurt early in Week 9 and this was with a QB that couldn’t take advantage of his explosive ability downfield. Christian Ponder didn’t complete a single pass beyond 20 yards to Harvin. I’ll have plenty more on Harvin in “Progression/Regression” next week.

The potential of the 3 headed receiving monster in Denver is mouth watering and for fantasy owners, I don’t think it should be scare you away from Demaryuis Thomas. The 94 receptions number might come down but I wouldn’t worry about the yardage or TD’s taking a steep drop. In 3 WR sets last year Thomas racked up 61 catches for 1060 yards and 6 TD’s. Welker will command some attention not only from defences but Peyton Manning stealing some targets away from Thomas, but he should also see some single coverage and he’s just too good not to take advantage multiple times.

White and Jones are fairly interchangeable but for the same reason Marshall got the nod at spot 2, White gets it ahead of his teammate. 90 catches and 1100 yards are in the bank with White, whereas Jones definitely has the higher upside, his nagging injury issues worry me just enough to slot him behind his partner. Along with Harvin I’ll have more on Cobb + Fitzgerald next week.

Jackson – Wayne:

This is a relatively small group but these 4 are reliable enough that if you waited too long on the top 10 or were just unlucky to miss out on them, you would want to grab at least 2 to make a respectable duo. Grabbing 1 as your #2 is ideal, but this is the final tier of lower risk #1 WR production.

Johnson – Smith:

I’m absolutely terrified of Andre Johnson this season because I just really don’t know what to expect. He bounced back to 112 catches, and a hair shy of 1600 yards but he finished with only 4 TD’s and only 7 targets in the red-zone last year. That was 3^rd on his team behind Owen Daniels (12 targets) and Arian Foster (9 targets). His injury past is what concerns me the most along with Marques Colston. Both have high potential if they stay healthy, but there are other safer plays in front of them.

This whole group has a bit of “Don’t know what to expect” in them. Mike Wallace under a new contract in Miami could flourish and get back to his 1000+ yard years or he could just have the same year as he did last year which landed him as 25^th amongst WR’s. Danny Amendola could slide into the Wes Welker role in New England seamlessly, or he could suffer a significant injury for the 3^rd straight year.

If you draft anyone in this list as your #2 WR you really need to back it up quickly with more from this group to offer you some protection and hope one of them pops off.

Brown – Williams:

Finally we get to some upside plays that bring promise and intrigue but this group is ahead of the next tier because they’ve done it before. Torrey Smith is really the biggest question mark but with the departure of Anquan Boldin from Baltimore it could free up more targets for Smith and a higher production rate. Williams comes with some concern because of his hot year – down year – hot year pattern but I’m betting on the quality of that Tampa offence that he’ll continue his production that saw him finish as the 18^th scoring WR last year.

Brown and Bowe each saw their yardage take a big drop but it was Bowe whose reception numbers plummeted. Having Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn tossing you passes will do that, but with a new coaching regime and an upgrade at QB he has some nice upside. Jones was a big TD grabber last year with 14 but could be in line for a regression towards the mean, and Johnson while not having huge upside, does have a high floor and is a relatively safe option at this stage.

Jennings – Gordon:

This group is mainly comprised of big play players that are filled with question marks. Greg Jennings + Cecil Shorts have QB issues, DeSean Jackson is scared to go over the middle, Pierre Garcon + Miles Austin have injury concerns, TY Hilton really only came on to end the year, Tavon Austin is a rookie and Josh Gordon is suspended to being the year.... and also has Brandon Weeden as his QB. Out of the group, I think Gordon and Hilton offer the most value because I think the scheme changes in Cleveland will benefit Weeden just enough to make Gordon’s big play abilities shine.

The Rest:

If you’re in a 10 team, start 3 WR league, you’ve sorted out your starters by now and hopefully you are looking to acquire more depth with some upside. With the added options in Seattle, Rice and Tate could benefit by seeing less coverage. Alshon Jeffrey is a freak athlete and should line up across from Brandon Marshall in a potent offence. But really the majority of this group will be hard to predict when to start.

This is just a pre-cursor and will be updated as the pre-season progresses so check back for updates. More coming on specific WR’s in the “Progression/Regression” piece.

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