114-120-3... oof – ok not that great. But this has been thoroughly enjoyable and thanks to those that have been reading through 17 weeks. In fact, thank you if you read any of the weeks. I’m looking forward to doing this for the 2013 NFL season, and I resolve to do better. Such is my determination to improve that I’m writing it into my New Year’s Resolutions. So in the spirit of making New Year’s Resolutions, I’m conjuring up 32 Should-Be Resolutions for the NFL along with the Week 17 Picks.
Onto the picks, home team in CAPS
Tampa Bay: Stay the course. It's unfortunate this team kind of fizzled out for a bit this year the second half of the year but they've got the makings of an explosive offence. But they also have an extremely leaky pass D - worst in the league. Thankfully they started to address that by drafting safety Mark Barron last year but they've got to continue to sort that out .
Atlanta: Don't become the mid-2000's Chargers. I don't think I've hated a football team more than those mid-2000's Chargers teams. For really no reason outside of that they talked too much smack considering they had won jack all. This is the 3rd year in a row that the Falcons have made the playoffs, and have yet to win anything. This year they really took on all comers and handled their business, but NOW it matters. The target is on them these playoffs, and if you don't deliver you start to slide into that mid 2000's Chargers territory. If they do lose - just shut up about how good your team is until you win in the 2nd season.
BILLS (-3.5) over Jets
New York: Find new leaders. And I don’t just mean on-field leader. This team needs a makeover in the front office. Rex Ryan is actually a pretty decent coach, but I think he’s been saddled with pieces that don’t work for him. I’ve lamented on how he hasn’t used Tebow in short yardage situations, but what if he never wanted Tebow? Now there’s something to be said about maximizing the personnel you have to benefit the team, but if you don’t trust a guy to play – do you even put him in? GM Mike Tannenbaum has to be the one to go and if the new GM wants to replace Ryan, then fine. But really I’d keep him on this team. Sanchez has been entertainingly awful but the pieces around him are atrocious. He’s not put in a position to succeed, and the fact that the Jets even sniffed at a potential playoff spot should be a credit to Rex Ryan.
Buffalo: Help CJ Spiller. CJ Spiller is having one of those seasons where I think the only people that know how good he has been are the people that own him in fantasy leagues. He’s top 10 in yards (ranks 9th and Stevan Ridley is 7th with 4 more yards and has 87 more carries... so really he’s ranked 7th), and 1st in yards per carry. Find a WR to compliment Stevie Johnson and a strong-armed QB that can whip the ball around in Buffalo and suddenly this offence can start easing the pain of the defence.
BENGALS (-2.5) over Ravens
Baltimore: Follow the simple formula. In their 10 wins, Ray Rice averages 22.8 touches. In their 5 losses, Rice gets 17.4 touches. Pretty simple formula to follow – and one that’s already cost an offensive coordinator his job.
Cincinnati: Keep Mike Zimmer by any means necessary. Zimmer is the team’s defensive coordinator and is working miracles. How is Terrance Newman A) Still in the league? B) Starting at corner back for the Bengals? The Bengals rank 10th in passing defence despite having Newman and Chris Crocker starting in their secondary and could certainly use an injection of young blood in that crew. Zimmer has been tipped to be a head coach for a few years but hasn’t gotten a break yet.
STEELERS (-6) over Browns
Cleveland: Get aggressive in the draft. Here’s the problem I have with not making a trade to get the RG3 draft pick. If you didn’t want to make the move because the price was too high and you didn’t want to sacrifice that many future 1st round picks – you then can’t select a 28 year old QB who’s window of opportunity is already closing when you make the pick. By selecting Weeden, the Browns put themselves in a position that they HAVE TO nail their drafts otherwise the Weeden era is a failure in 1 go. There’s no reboot with a guy that’s already this old.
Pittsburgh: Put some trust in youth. As soon as some injuries hit this team they had to turn the keys to CHARLIE BATCH... Yes that same Charlie Batch that if you played Franchise Mode in Madden 2001 cutting him off the Detroit Lions roster was 1 of the first things you did. Not to mention that this team loses a bit of its identity when Polamalu/Harrison go down (19 man games between the 2). For a team that has shown the ability to develop talent in skill positions they need to start replenishing their depth to survive these injury spells.
COLTS (+6.5) over Texans
Houston: Find a new training staff. I know this is going to sound weird, but doesn’t Houston need to do a better job of preventing injuries? Last year it was Matt Schaub who got hurt and made a scary team not so scary in the playoffs, and this year it’s a multitude of injuries on the defensive side of the ball that suddenly looks very beatable even as a #1 seed.
Indianapolis: No knee-jerk reactions. This team has a bit of a Seattle 2010 feel but they’ve got some difference pieces to start with. New regime comes in and completely overhauls the roster (GM Ryan Grigson has brought in 37 new players – and I couldn’t find the exact number for the season but by June Seattle had made 60 transactions for its new roster) and they make the playoffs in Year 1 of the rebuilding process. But now is not the time to make any shortcuts.
TITANS (-4.5) over Jaguars
Jacksonville: Draft pass-rushers and corners. Here’s what we know so far about the 2013 Jacksonville Jaguars – Tim Tebow will be starting QB. It’s going to happen. So how do you help him out? Well you already have Maurice Jones-Drew, you grabbed Justin Blackmon in the draft to play WR and Cecil Shorts had a mini-breakout year so you might be set for offensive pieces. But Tim Tebow needs a defence that can keep him in games, and a league low 18 sacks by this team isn’t going to cut it. To put that into perspective, Aldon Smith and JJ Watt have more sacks individually than the Jaguars do as a team. They need to get younger and more explosive off the edge. They also rank in the bottom 10 in passing D and the NFL is a passing league.
Tennessee: Overhaul the defence. It's embarrassing really. The point differential in their 10 losses is 20.4 points. And in only 2 of those 10 losses were the scores less than 7 points, and both were against Indianapolis who have an equally hapless defence. Having all these points scored against them takes their best weapon in CJ2K out of the game because now they have to start throwing the ball more. With Locker and Johnson they have the potential for a dangerous running game, but the defence needs to step up and keep them in games.
Eagles (+7) over GIANTS
Philadelphia: Do what you're going to do. There's really nothing more to say here because with a new regime coming in here changes are going to happen. I just hope that this city celebrates Andy Reid rather than vilifies him. Yes he deserves some blame that this team never won a championship, but he also ushered in a very successful era for the Eagles.
New York: Find identity again. You know what works for this team. They've used it for 2 seasons and got themselves rings. And yet this season they lost it. Eli was wildly inconsistent and the defence was ice cold the second half of the year. Seriously, what Corey Webster looked awful last week vs. the Ravens, they were beating him so bad I wanted to call child services. There's no doubting that this team can bounce back next season, but they need to find their identity again to reach the playoffs again.
Panthers (+5.5) over SAINTS
New York: Find identity again. You know what works for this team. They've used it for 2 seasons and got themselves rings. And yet this season they lost it. Eli was wildly inconsistent and the defence was ice cold the second half of the year. Seriously, what Corey Webster looked awful last week vs. the Ravens, they were beating him so bad I wanted to call child services. There's no doubting that this team can bounce back next season, but they need to find their identity again to reach the playoffs again.
Panthers (+5.5) over SAINTS
Carolina: Be consistent. Ron Rivera might have saved his job with the teams second half performance (although the team will bring in a new GM in the off-season so Rivera might be replaced) but if this team could perform in the 1st half of the season like they have in the 2nd half of this season, then maybe a playoff spot could have been within the realm of possibility. Luke Kuechly is a great piece on the defensive side of the ball to build around and there is some promise - the performances from week-week just can't fluctuate like they have.
New Orleans: Support Steve Spagnuolo. This was his 1st year as the teams defensive coordinator and I don't think the pieces he needs to make this defence successful are in place yet. If they can address that in the draft and start to build what Spags needs + with Sean Payton back next year this team should be competing for the division again.
Bears (-3) over LIONS
Chicago: Rebuild offensive line. When you have pieces like Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte - you should not be 4th last in yards per drive. When that happens you look at the line. A putrid 26 yards per drive isn't going to get it done.
Detroit: Adjust the attitude. Yes, at the risk of sounding like a Grade 2 teacher, but this team needs an attitude adjustment. When your best player shows up and puts in work day in day out like Calvin Johnson does, how do more players not follow his lead? How are there so many knuckleheads on this team? Undisciplined squad and many times they look unprepared. Too many 4th quarter leads squandered this season and they need to show up and put in work for 60 minutes.
VIKINGS (+3.5) over Packers
Green Bay: Find a running game. If Steven Jackson hits free agency he should be in a Packer uniform in all of .8 seconds later. He'd be a nice compliment to Rodgers and wouldn't have to carry the load and could avoid injury that way.
Minnesota: Prop Christian Ponder up. I'm not ready to throw in the towel on Christian Ponder but without Adrian Peterson this offence has the potential to be laughable. They're building something, but if they lose Percy Harvin in the off-season then I think all hell is going to break loose. He's their only viable WR option right now but if you were to add in 1 more legitimate threat on top of AP, and Rudolph... suddenly this gives Ponder a chance to win games on his own.
Dolphins (+10) over PATRIOTS
Miami: Surround Ryan Tannenhill with talent. I never really understood the trading of Brandon Marshall but if a new regime didn’t think they would mesh with a potential headcase in Marshall, then so be it. But this team needs to find some WR’s and quickly. The O-line might need some work but the defence is stout enough to keep them in games so the offence needs its development accelerated.
New England: Play at a slower tempo – SOMETIMES. If they’re averaging 25 seconds between plays, even a 9 play drive is going to only kill about 3:45 minutes, and that’s assuming the clock never stops. They need to start choking teams with their running game and drain the clock. Let’s take that same 9 play drive and make it 37 seconds per play... That’s over 5:30 minutes, that’s less time your defence has to spend on the field – a defence that gives up nearly 400 yards a game. They wind up letting teams hang around in games because opposition offences get extra possessions with the quick tempo offence. Need to run more to chew up more time. In games where Brady has thrown the ball over 40 times, the Pats are 3-4. The 3 wins were all against non-playoff teams (Jets in OT, Jaguars and Chad Henne had the ball late in the 4th to tie it, Dolphins by 7) and their average point total in those 7 games is 25.7 points, which is 10 points less than their seasonal average. Less is more for Brady.
BRONCOS (-16) over Chiefs
Kansas City: I really want to say don't panic... but with the first overall pick this year how do you not pick a QB - clearly Matt Cassel isn't the guy, but there's no clear cut #1 QB prospect in this draft, and if they pick someone like Geno Smith then they have to commit to building an offence for 2-3 years. This team is so full of holes and flawed that what they decide to do with their 1st pick is going to shape the teams identity. If they want to go on the defensive side of the ball, that would be good to but whatever their choice, they have to stick to it. Fix one side of the ball first, and then the next. It's a new management/coaching team coming in most likely so you'll get the time to fix it.
Denver: Plan Ahead. A team on the exact opposite side of the spectrum than Kansas City. With Peyton on this team, he masks so many issues that aren't going to crop up. But what if they started to plan for his retirement now and started to acquire mass depth and youth at other positions so that WHEN he retires suddenly the rest of the roster is full of promise and the drop off from Peyton to the next QB isn't as severe.
Raiders (+7) over CHARGERS
Oakland: Keep the coach. I kind of like Dennis Allen and think he will be ok as a coach, but you can't chuck out your coach 1 year into a rebuild when this roster was already flawed. If you're changing coaching philosophies yearly than the pieces you have are never going to fit into the system you want to build. If this team is still struggling in year 3 of this process than start looking at the coach.
San Diego: Decide on Phililp Rivers. Well with Norv Turner all but gone, the next item on the chopping block is Phillip Rivers. They'll have him next year but it's getting to the point that they have to decide what direction they want to go in. If they commit to fixing the offensive line in the off season then ok you're sticking with Rivers. But if they ignore it, then next season is going to get ugly.
Cardinals (+16.5) over 49ERS
Arizona: DRAFT A QB. Yes it's the only teams resolution that I put into CAPS but it's necessary for these guys. I usually don't feel bad for players in the same division of my Seahawks but man alive do I feel bad for Larry Fitzgerald. And give him credit - the guy is the consummate pro. Never complains, never waves his hands disapprovingly when a pass from John Skelton/Kevin Kolb / Ryan Lindley / Brian Hoyer sails 10 yards above his head. He just trots back to the huddle, gets the next play and heads back out there. He's a true leader and nobody would blame him if he just exploded on his teammates, but he deserves better. A lot of pieces would fall into place for this team if they can get even a marginally competent QB
San Francisco: Get some depth. I know the defence is incredibly dominant, but why is it that they have to roll the same 11 guys on the field all game? And suddenly Justin Smith goes down and they've given up over 70 points in the past 6 quarters. The team has been remarkably healthy over the past 2 season and they hit an injury blip and it feels like this isn't the same team anymore.
REDSKINS (-3) over Cowboys
Dallas: Keep Tony Romo upright. Look - I'm a Romo fan. I think he's a good QB that gets a bad rep because of the market he's in and how easy it is to hate Dallas. In a league where you need a good QB it's remarkable how starved the league is for QB's. Once you start ranking QB's Romo is kind of the end of the tier of good QB's. After him you get into the Matt Stafford / Phililp Rivers range, so you can't really throw Tony Romo under the bus and turn the keys to someone else. Get him interior protection, which will help the running game as well and take some of the pressure off of him and make the game easier for him.
Washington: Get RG3 a #1 WR Receiver. Andrew Luck came in and had Reggie Wayne waiting. Russell Wilson had Sidney Rice and then the emergence of Golden Tate. With the WR free agency market shaping up decently, and Washington's penchant to making free agency splashes, how amazing would Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings be in this this explosive offence?
SEAHAWKS (-10) over Rams
St. Louis: Find a way to reverse time so you don't trade away the RG3 Pick Hit home runs with all the picks from the RG3 trade. You make that trade so you set yourself up really well with the plethora of picks you can use to your advantage. This is the time to cash in on those. Considering how amazing RG3 has been, the players you bring in with these picks have to make this team into a divisional contender, and quick.
Seattle: Nothing. Homer resolution - we're awesome. Happy New Year everyone.
Last Week: 8-7-1
Season: 114-120-3
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