So
with a clean slate of the record ahead of the playoffs, now the goal for the
playoffs is an unsustainable 11-0 run. Let’s aim for perfection. This is what a
1 week confidence will do to you. And while I was taking a look at the Wildcard
matchups, the word “perfect” just kept cropping back up to me. So let’s get to
it and you’ll see what I mean.
Onto
the picks, home team in CAPS
TEXANS
(-4.5) over Bengals
Every
fiber of my being wants to take the Bengals. But there are a few things I can’t
get around. Firstly, that this Bengals team played this Texans team in the
Wildcard playoffs LAST year and got whooped. And that was with TJ Yates at the
helm for the Texans not Matt Schaub. And somehow in that year span, this line
is still the same. I know a lot has changed – Andy Dalton & AJ Green are a
year older, the Bengals got Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis and Geno Atkins has emerged
as a dominant defensive lineman... But how is it that a 3rd string
rookie compared to Matt Schaub (in that top 15’ish for QB’s range) can’t
manufacture a line change in this game?
Second,
I get that Houston is on a bit of a slide (1-3 in their last 4) but let’s look
at who they faced. At New England on Monday Night, Indy at home (the only win),
Minnesota at home, and Indy on the road. Now we can already discount the New
England game because ok whatever they lost that – it’s the Patriots on a Monday
Night in December. The 2 divisional games so close together against a complete
stud of a QB you can understand going 1-1 (although losing the 2nd
one in a must-win situation stings), it’s really only the Minnesota game that
sticks out as just the unforgiveable one. Meanwhile the Bengals are 7-1 in
their last 8 – but look who they have faced.
Giants, @ Chiefs, Raiders, @ Chargers, Cowboys (the only loss), @
Philly, @ Steelers, Ravens (and the Ravens were playing backups). Notice anything?
NOT A PLAYOFF TEAM AMONGST THEM (except for the Ravens but if the Ravens played
backups all year long they’d be out of contention). The Bengals main concern
this year was can they win the games they need to, not just the easy ones. The
only decent victory amongst those 7 is the Giants one, but considering the
subsequent tail-spin New York went in after that, even that win gets a bit
discounted. They couldn’t have asked for a more perfect stretch of games at the
right time to rattle off that streak.
Finally,
and this is the big one for me.... Can Andy Dalton deal with JJ Watt? There’s
going to come a point in this game where JJ Watt is going to disrupt plays
behind the line of scrimmage. Watt was responsible for over 60 tackles behind
the line of scrimmage. I’m going to pause for a second to let that sink in.
Unpause.
60!! That shattered league records. That’s just a hair shy of 4 a game. Drives
are going to sputter for Dalton because of Watt stopping the run game, creating
hurries or sacking Dalton. And every drive that sputters puts more pressure on
the Bengals who already struggle to score. How is Andy going to react? I
haven’t seen enough evidence to think Andy will overcome that.
PACKERS
(-9) over Vikings
AP put together a near perfect season (and really it
was perfect – if you want to discount those 9 yards from his year go right
ahead, but considering the expectations coming into the year, he far exceeded
them) and more importantly, Christian Ponder played a PERFECT game last week.
And that’s the rub in taking the Vikings this week. It really was a perfect
scenario for them against Green Bay last week. Packers not fully healthy,
Vikings playing at home, all the motivation in the world to get Adrian Peterson
the record, and playing for a playoff spot against a team struggling to slow
down the run.
Except this week the Packers get the cavalry back.
Cobb is back, Woodson is back. The Vikings and Christian Ponder were perfect
last week, and still barely pulled that win out. Now the conditions are going
to be anything but and while AP can mask many deficiencies for this team, if
this team gets down 10 points in the 4th quarter... Do you trust
taking Christian Ponder in that situation? And if the Packers have the ball
with a 3 point lead, you know they’re going to push for 7 every time since they
know what Adrian Peterson can do to them in a 1 score game. It all depends if
Ponder gets behind, something that didn’t happen last game. It’s a lot easier
to play with AP and a lead than it is without.
Colts
(+7) over RAVENS
Storylines are what make playoffs great. And if you can get 1
good one, it’s fantastic. How about 4-5 good storylines in this one? Jim
Caldwell and Chuck Pagano both coaching against their former teams. The whole
#ChuckStrong movement for the Colts. The Ravens rallying around Ray Lewis’
impending retirement and his last ever home game. Throw in the fact that it’s
the Colts coming back to Baltimore – MIX THAT IN WITH A PLAYOFF GAME and
goodness me this is crazy.
I really wanted to pick all 4 favourites (Spoiler Alert to
the next pick), but I think of all the lines, this has the most backdoor potential.
Andrew Luck hasn’t been good on the road and when you watch that Houston game
from last week, he got ZERO protection from his line but was still getting the
ball out. So while his line concerns me, I don’t see Baltimore’s pass rush
being as disruptive as Houston’s. Luck has been turnover prone and Ed Reed is a
vacuum in the secondary. Every part of me wants to take the Ravens here because
it’s a perfect matchup for their offence. Indy can’t stop run (they gave up the
most plays of over 20 yards) and that will make life easier for Joe Flacco, who
when facing bad defences has played well. But there’s something about going
against #ChuckStrong that doesn’t feel right. When a team has its mojo going
and can rally around something as significant as your coach battling against leukemia
– I don’t know if I want to pick against that when the spread is a touchdown.
Baltimore still probably wins but the thing about Andrew Luck is that you know
he’s going to fight for all 60 minutes and this has backdoor cover potential.
Seahawks
(-3) over REDSKINS
RG3 vs. RW3. This is going to be exciting. Here’s
what I really don’t get though. The Redskins ran up and down on the Cowboys,
literally. At no point did you think Dallas was in control of the game.
Washington had a game plan, Dallas refused to adapt and were thoroughly
manhandled. Washington just couldn’t be stopped – they were gifted 2 picks by
Tony Romo. And yet Romo had the ball late in the game with the chance to take
the lead. Despite the complete superiority in the game, Dallas could have taken
the lead. Of course Romo commits a brain-fart and the rest is history, but
Seattle will not be as giving as Dallas was. I said it 3 weeks before it
happened, it was a perfect stage for the Cowboys to fail on and they duly
delivered.
For starters, they have the safeties that can attack
this Pistol Formation. More importantly, they have a secondary that can bump
receivers and delay RG3 from making throws while a pass rush, which is good, attacks
RG3. What I never understood about the Cowboys game plan is how little they hit
RG3. If you knew he wasn’t 100% - why wouldn’t you force him to make the plays
and take the punishment? They allowed Alfred Morris be the player that beat
him, rather than a 70% Griffin. Seattle’s defence is far superior and better
equipped to deal with this offence, not to mention they run a very similar
offence which will give them a leg-up in being prepared for it. I don’t really
see how Washington has the pieces on its defence to withstand the offensive
pressure Russell Wilson will create. If Washington is going to draw up those
manic blitzes that they threw at Dallas, Seattle has enough versatility to its
offence to cope with it. I don’t think you’ll see that aggressiveness from the
Redskins but no matter what is drawn up, Seattle will adapt. Plus – I’m not
picking against my boys. Seahawks @ Packers in the NFC Championship game. Book
it.
Last
Week: 12-4
Season:
126-124-3
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