Bik's Week 1 Thursday Night Pick: Welcome Back

Hey so did you see that highlight in the baseball season – where that player dove and caught the ball, then got up and tossed it to first base for an out??? Yea me too... I saw it about 200 times. As I’m sure you did too. Or the one where the guy hits a home-run. Or the one where the player jumps up against the wall to make a grab and save a home-run. I guess it was impressive stuff especially since baseball has no cheaters and did all those plays cleanly. Needless to say, I gladly welcome one of the best days on the calendar as it’s the return of NFL Football and the end of having to watch baseball.

Also competing for best day of the calendar award is every Sunday. Not only for NFL football, but because Breaking Bad. Holy smokes, have you been watching?!?! I highly recommend you do. After 33 weeks of essentially living in darkness, Sunday’s are remarkable again. End result is this:

NFL Football + Breaking Bad – MLB Baseball =

I’m also glad to welcome you back to The Extra Period and to witness an improvement on last year’s picks. I mean I was above .500 and for a first year of making picks I was satisfied. But mere average is not enough this year. So bear witness this year as together we ascend to great heights with these picks. If you have comments, questions throughout the year, like The Extra Period Facebook page and follow myself or my esteemed colleague TJ on Twitter.

I’ll have a full piece for you tomorrow but like every Thursday this NFL Season, the Thursday Pick will be a short piece.

As always the Home Team is in CAPS.

Ravens (+8) over BRONCOS

Let’s wind the clock back to January 12^th when these two met in Denver for the AFC Championship Game. The line then was Denver -9.5 and whatever you wish to call it, choke or comeback.... Joe Flacco and the Ravens beat Peyton Manning in spectacular fashion 38-35 to go to the Super Bowl and win. So what have we learned in the following 8 months?

• Ray Lewis retired and Ed Reed signed with Houston.
• Von Miller got suspended for the first 6 games of the season.
• The Broncos stole signed Wes Welker from New England.
• Joe Flacco didn’t understand Ray Lewis.
• The Broncos can’t decide between Ronnie Hillman, Montee Ball or Knowshown Moreno to play Running Back.
• The Ravens drafted a linebacker and a safety to replace Reed and Lewis.
• The Broncos couldn’t work a fax-machine to re-sign Elvis Dumervil.
• The Ravens traded Anquan Boldin to San Francisco.
• Elvis Dumervil became a Raven.
• Champ Bailey got hurt in pre-season.
• Dennis PItta got hurt in the pre-season.
• And worst of all, Peyton Manning did this

So how in all that has this line only moved 1.5 points? By my count the Ravens got better by moving on from Lewis and Reed and bringing in rookies Arthur Brown and Matt Elam along with Daryl Smith and Elvis Dumervil. The Broncos have lost not just 1 key pass rusher in Miller, but Dumervil meaning the defence is missing 29.5 of its 52 sacks from last season. So a depleted pass rush isn’t going to be able to prop up a meagre pass defence with Bailey playing at less than 100%.

I get all the concerns with Flacco’s receiving targets, but losing Boldin + Pitta isn’t as big of a deal as we first thought. At Tight End, Ed Dickson is an extremely serviceable TE that caught 54 passes and 5 TD’s in 2011. It might not be Pitta but it’s not a steep drop-off that Flacco can’t work with. The Boldin loss hurts more with his toughness and reliability for Flacco, but here’s a fun little wrinkle to the Ravens. They have Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. I’m not suggesting Ray Rice (is it impossible to say just Rice? Don’t you have to full name him every time? He’s got a nice flow to his name) is Boldin but the now 49ers receiver operated primarily underneath for the Ravens offence (40 of his 65 receptions came on passes behind the line of scrimmage or between 1-10 yards). Ray Rice is an exceptional pass catcher for a RB, and the Ravens are now able to use him in the slot from time to time if they so wish because of Bernard Pierce. Ray Rice can become the sort of matchup nightmare the likes of Darren Sproles and Reggie Bush have become by lining up all over the place pre-snap and it wouldn’t take too much from the run game for Baltimore.

I think you can cross out the Denver revenge factor because as much as that’s motivation for the Broncos, the Ravens have just as much motivation by being discounted so heavily in this game.

It's not Sunday yet, but Thursday nights also got kinda awesome again. I’ll have picks for the rest of the Week 1 tomorrow. Enjoy tonight and welcome back football.

Last Season: 134-128-5