As
I described yesterday, Week 1 of the 2013 NFL Season was not flattering to
me. I needed to go back to the drawing board. Back to the basement. Re-crunch
the numbers. Re-examine everything and find the correct formula for success.
Maybe watch some game film. But then it occurred to me.... What I needed was to
get back to when this game was fun. Just being a kid, and running around.
Forget the fanfare, the high production value of the NFL. Grabbing a pigskin
and calling some friends.... and just playing. Playing the game for fun. So I’m
going back to when football was fun. Here’s a detailed analysis over the most
important football play of the 2013-14 Season:
It’s important to note that of the 7000+ views of this
video, I account for about 200 of them because this clip from a Pee-Wee game in
Alabama is truly the greatest play of this young football season. You might
have to view it a few times to see and understand all of what I’m about to
describe but it’s worth it. Let’s break down all of the amazing elements in
chronological order:
Pre Snap:
- The entire play starts with confusion by the offense and #98 in White running off to the sideline in the most remarkable of fashion. He also seems to be trying to point something out about the defense which generally goes unnoticed. It’s a good hustle play to jog it off like that though, and kudos to the QB on the awareness to wait for him to get to the sideline.
- The lack of a pre-snap read by the QB. He goes from looking at the sideline to snapping the ball in about 1.2 seconds. Maybe had he taken some time to identify the “Mike Linebacker” he wouldn’t have needed to truck him in the backfield after the LB went unblocked.
- The ref wearing shorts pants. Shants. Phorts. Whatever you want to call it. Choose one or the other bro.
- The cheer. Like I said I’ve watched this clip at least 100 times. I still can’t figure out what they’re trying to say. I don’t imagine it’s as epic as this either.
- Sometimes great plays need a lucky break – the fact that 2 officials missed the false start by the tight end on the left is was this plays lucky break.
- The play design is rather dubious. 3 RB’s in the backfield and it’s a QB sweep that goes 6 yards into the backfield with no pulling linemen or RB trying to get out with a lead block.
- The fake to #40 is fine, but #40 plays no part in wanting to sell the fake or even attempt to get in someone’s way. So much so that he steps back scared like he just saw a spider to avoid a hit from a player that definitely looks smaller than him.
- A coach randomly appearing at the :12 second mark 10 yards in the backfield. Pretty sure that’s not the sideline dude.
- The complete lack of interest and utter disapproval of every player in White to block for this play is something to treasure. Most notably the block #9, the RB, throws on #26 in White. Absolutely no f**** were given trying to throw that block. And then he gives the ole “awh shucks... too bad” arm swing as he gives up on the play. It takes all of 6 steps by the QB (here and after-known as Ninja Hulk or NH) for every player on his team to just stand still and watch what transpires.
- The TRUCK. Now that ladies and gentlemen is how you Truck some fool who tries to bring that weak stuff up into Ninja Hulk’s house. You don’t come waddling in without bending your knees and getting low to deliver a tackle. NOT WHEN NH IS AROUND!!! Flattens #11 who can only get to his knees after being thoroughly ashamed like that in front of his family and he assumes the other 9 unblocked teammates of his will finish the play off.
- Let’s focus on the 1 player that did manage to get blocked. He’s the absolute BEHEMOTH on the defensive line #20. You’ll see him get double teamed but the 2 offensive line players figure “there’s 2 of us we can put in half the effort.” #20 is really the only player not to factor in this play because he gets marginally blocked. What a novel concept. Remember that kids.
- #34 in Purple. If you start from the beginning of the play you’ll see he comes from the far side of the field. This kid is the Rudy Ruettiger of Pee-Wee Football in Alabama. Look at that pure determination to pursue NH and try to make the tackle. It helps that he goes unblocked but really who didn’t. He’s slicing across the field to close that angle. He’s unfazed by NH trucking his comrade. He’s seconds away from shutting this play down. He – then – clips – the – foot of #10... This causes both players to trip en route to a 4 man collision... all of whom are teammates that could have made the tackle only to blow a lane WIDE OPEN for NH. Better luck next time Charles. I'm gonna assume his name is Charles because that feels like a Charles thing to do. Sorry I'm not sorry to any Charles' reading this.
- Now the lane wouldn’t have been wide open had the oncoming safety #9 decided to go for the most epic of hits of all time. That kid plays so much Madden that he just cast aside any and all form of tackling and started pounding the “Hit-Stick” button. And it plays out exactly like a missed “Hit-Stick” tackle because he just disappears into oblivion. He’s there to make a TD saving tackle 1 second and then just out of the picture .5 seconds later probably 15 yards downfield still stumbling.
- #12 – C’MON MAAAAN. YOU JUST SAW NINJA-HULK TRUCK YOUR BOIII FOR GOING TOO HIGH ON A TACKLE. WHY WOULD YOU COME UP HIGH AS WELL. That’s why you got served up with that stiff-arm. Your weak game didn’t even break NH’s stride or veer him at least an inch towards the sideline.
- Shout-out to #4 who actually kept running the play out. We know you’re not going to make the tackle and that it’s a TD, but way to run it out. Not like #64 who just waves his arms like “oh well” then puts his arms out wide to blame his teammates all “what the hell!!” None of you were blocked, why are you blaming anyone else. Check yourself before you wreck yourself #64 (whose name I want to say is Ryan) Tip of the hat to you #4. That’s leadership.
- The Coach who gives a fist pump and then pats a player on the back. Ok A) Why are you cheering. NH saved your butt. It’s janky play calls like you called that get players injured. B) You need to teach better skills and motivate better to get your players to block before we lose a star like NH to baseball. C) DON'T PAT PLAYERS ON THE BACK THAT DIDN’T EARN IT. WHAT DID YOU DO FOR NINJA-HULK AFTER THIS PLAY, BUY HIM A CAR?!?!
- The Ref v2.0. Also wearing Shants (I’m going with Shants). He doesn’t even jog it out to the goal line to confirm the TD. He just stops on the 3 yard line, all sorts of outta breath after nearly pulling a hammy at the 17 yard line.
- Now to maybe the best part of the play. NH is 4 yards into the end-zone. He went 1 on 10 and scored an insane TD. #51 in purple has also run the play down a bit and is at the 10 yard line. This is when NH’s teammate decides “I’VE GOTTA THROW A BLOCK!!!” and he just LAAAAAAAAYS OUT #51 with a BLATANT cheap shot in the back right next to the ref who is cramping up. And #51 wasn’t even irate about it. He just shrugs on the ground, gets up, carries on thinking “We get orange slices on the sideline? Coooooaaaaach... Are we going for pizza afterwards?” NOOOOO YOU’RE NOT GOING FOR PIZZA AFTERWARDS. PIZZA IS FOR WINNERS. PIZZA IS FOR THOSE THAT SHOW PASSION IN THE GAME. You just got blindsided and cheapshotted so egregiously Ndamukong Suh feels bad for you. Especially after the guy that threw the “block” he starts mean-mugging you 6 seconds later. Man up!
The Celebration:
- There’s not much to NH’s celebration which is partially because of his sheer exhaustion of having to take on 10 players on his own. But none of his teammates exerted any energy. Why did only 2 players go to congratulate Ninja-Hulk’s iconic performance. Maybe because some of them were too busy trying to fix the string on their pants. No, Seriously. 28 second mark. After the epic cheap-shot, you’ll notice 2 players come into your screen from the left. 1 doesn’t go to celebrate with NH, the other gives a quick “Yeaaa!” arms in the air but then immediately his attention is diverted to his pants.
Now that you’ve seen the complete breakdown, watch it again
in its entirety:
Home team in CAPS
Jets (+12) over PATRIOTS
Patriots beat the Jets 13-10 on Thursday Night
FALCONS (-6.5) over Rams
If Atlanta has any aspirations of going to the playoffs
(they do), they need this game. They can’t afford to go 0-2. Rams coming off a
divisional game which they squeaked it out, this could be a let down game for
them. Not to go all GSP on
the Rams here, but I wasn’t that impressed by their performance vs. the
Cardinals despite forcing 2 turnovers, and coming back to win that game. They
let Carson Palmer look real good. And that was Carson Palmer on the road. This
is Matt Ryan at home where he is a near lock to win the game. Add in the Steven
Jackson playing his old team factor, and I don’t think the Falcons let up and
should be able to beat the 6.5.
Chargers (+7.5) over EAGLES
Fun question: What was the score if you just look at the 2nd
half of the Eagles – Redskins game?
20-7 Washington. Tough to remember right? It was actually
only a 6 point win for the Eagles despite the dominating performance. It looks
great that up-tempo Eagles offense. It really did. But here’s the thing, it’s
going to keep the Eagles defense on the field. So while they will get out to
early leads, if they start chalking up short drives in the 2nd half
(which they did – it wasn’t till their 2nd to last drive in which
they had a 6 play drive in the 2nd half) the defense is going to
start getting fatigued and letting teams get some more points. This isn’t
Oregon where Chip Kelly has the benefit to roll out a 2nd unit defense
of recruits that are better than most teams 1st string. They’re
pro’s, they’re gonna get gassed and we’re hoping for a backdoor cover here.
CHIEFS (-3) over Cowboys
Same philosophy as the last game. Did anyone exactly walk
away from that Sunday Night Game between Dallas and New York feeling confident
about the Cowboys this year? Despite the 6 turnovers and a lead the entire game
won by a mere 5 points. With 6 turnovers you couldn’t win by double digits?
Really? And 2 TD’s came from the defense. Why exactly Tony Romo threw the ball
49 times in a game his team led the entire time is beyond me. They had the ball
for 37 minutes and I feel it should have been at least 40 minutes. And somehow
they still managed to barely hang on. I mean Eli did have the ball with 2
minutes to go and only a 30-24 lead for the Cowboys. And with those gaudy
passing attempts which includes 36 completions for a ridiculous 73%, how many
yards do you think Romo chalked up? 350? 400? 450? Nope. 263. Actually. I had
to triple check. 263!?!? That’s a lot of short passing. Plus he took a shot to
the ribs and welcome to Arrowhead Stadium to play Tamba Hali and Justin
Houston. If you give them 49 attempts to lay hits on Romo, he might not finish
the game. Mr. Play it Safe Alex Smith isn’t going to afford the Cowboys many
mistakes with the football. And here’s 1 last wrinkle. Andy Reid playing a
former divisional foe. He’ll have more on this team than they’ll have on his
new team.
Dolphins (+3) over COLTS
I think this Dolphins D might be the best kept secret in the
league. Don’t exactly love the Colts and really the only reason I picked them
last week was because they played the hapless Raiders who turned out not to be
so hapless... at least vs. the Colts. I really think that was a product of the
Colts not being as good as last year than the Raiders being good.
Titans (+9) over TEXANS
Won’t go as far as saying the Texans comeback vs. San Diego
was a miracle, but it’s not like it inspired a lot of confidence in me that they had to comeback like that in the first place. I
really didn’t think the Chargers managed to get their run game going either by
a lack of commitment or a lack of talent on the O-Line. 20 carries in a game in
which you had a 3 score lead isn’t enough. The Titans however will commit to
the run and have the talent in the back-field with Chris Johnson, and apparently
Jackie Battle + Shonn Greene, and the offensive line to go with it. They’ll try
to drag this game out with runs while draining the clock and hope Jake Locker
can string together a few passes late. Now if they start to turn the ball over
early in the game, it could get ugly early. But if Ed Reed stays out for the
Texans that’ll lower my fear of Locker aiming 1 directly at the future Hall of
Famer
PACKERS (-7) over Redskins
Remember last year when Rodgers had that huge game against
Houston and silenced some critics. How much fun do you think Aaron Rodgers is
having right now having to answer questions about how the team can’t seem to
beat San Francisco. Or if mobile quarterbacks like Kaepernick and RG3 are a
problem for the Packers. You don’t think the guy that has an eternal chip on
his shoulder wants to go 0-2 do you?
Browns (+6.5) over RAVENS
I know it’s a terrifying proposition but I’m sticking by my
pre-season belief that the Browns might be good. Brandon Weeden didn’t look
even average especially since he threw 3 picks in his first 10 attempts. But
much like that Tennessee – Pittsburgh game last week where I felt it would
either be a Titans win or a Steelers blowout with no in between, this one has
the same feeling. But I have more questions about the pass-catching options
that Joe Flacco has than I do about the rest of the Browns team so I’ll take
the points and leave myself some room for error with the anything can happen
attitude.
Panthers (-1) over BILLS
I think 1 of the biggest misconceptions people are going to
take away from Week 1 is that the Panthers – Seahawks game was a sloppy, poorly
played and boring 12-7 game. It really wasn’t. Just because 28+ points aren’t
put up on the scoreboard by both teams doesn’t mean both teams played poorly.
You’re still allowed to play good defense and have a good game. The Panthers
put up a REALLY good game against the Seahawks and ‘Hawks took their best punch
and still came out on top. The Bills did the same versus New England. But
here’s the difference. I think it’s going to be tougher for Buffalo to pick themselves
up after a divisional game with a gut-wrenching finish like that. They’re a
younger team and I think they’re inexperience will show in a game vs. a good
Panthers team.
BEARS (-6.5) over Vikings
Last week I Pondered #Wordplay if the Bears could continue
to generate turnovers after the departure of Lovie Smith... And they sure
showed that they could against Cincy. And while it’s alarming that the running backs
combined for only 65 yards on 26 carries, it’s great to see that Jay Cutler
took 0 sacks. Thaaat’s right, Jay Cutler wasn’t sacked once. Very big sign for
them. I don’t know if the Bears will go to the same extreme of trying to slow
down AP like the Lions did, but they’ll certainly force Ponder to beat them and
that might be a recipe for disaster for Minny with the ball-hawks on this team.
Saints (-3) over BUCCANEERS
I’m not saying that an actual bus driven by Greg Schiano is
going to come out on the field and the Tampa Bay team is going to throw Josh
Freeman under it.... I’m saying that because this game is on FOX and their
penchant for doing gimmicky graphics, you might see it done to showcase what
this team is doing to Freeman’s confidence. Here are a few things we’ve learned
just this past week along about Freeman and the Bucs: He overslept for
the team photo. The head coach might have rigged the players vote to exclude
Freeman from being a team captain. The team held a players only meeting BEFORE
THE SEASON STARTED allegedly about this issue, but then Schiano refuted that
the players are questioning the captain’s vote. Who holds a players meeting
before the season starts?!? And I’m supposed to take the 3 points against a
divisional team that features a top 3 QB in the league? Ya no thanks.
Lions (-1.5) over CARDINALS
I kind of liked the Lions gameplan defensively last week vs.
the Vikings. They lined up 8 in the box for a large portion of the game, far
more than teams usually would, tried to take AP out of the game and essentially
dared Christian Ponder to beat them. Now AP busted 1 huge run off to start the
game but struggled to gain yardage after that. I kind of like that inventiveness
to strategize and commit to it by the Lions. I hope they continue to think progressively
this week when Palmer looks for Fitzgerald all game. I look for them to throw a
lot of double coverage towards Fitzgerald and their front 4 should be able to
generate enough of a pass rush against a feeble Cardinals line coupled with a
head coach that relies on slow-developing routes for big plays.
Jaguars (+6) over RAIDERS
The game nobody will be watching. All I know is Blaine
Gabbert isn’t starting and that’s enough for me to like the Jags.
GIANTS (+4.5) over Broncos
Hey did you know there are 2 brothers in this game? Like
they lived in the same house, used to play catch in the backyard and as luck
would have it their father was a former NFL QB as well. So it’s a cool American
classic story about a family being brought together by football. And how
awesome is it that 2 brothers now lead 2 NFL teams. And have both won Super
Bowls.......... Sorry I’m just trying to get all the excruciating story-lines
that you’ll hear 1000x about this game out of the way now.
You’re never as bad as your worst game and you’re never as
good as your best game. Both these teams played their games in prime-time and
both looked on opposite ends of the spectrum. The Giants couldn’t have done
much worse protecting the football last week, most notably David Wilson. Eli
wasn’t fantastic either with 3 picks on his own, but here’s the thing. Eli
might be better than Flacco and his WR’s are definitely better than what
Baltimore has to offer. And the Ravens had a halftime lead vs. the Broncos
before everything fell apart to which I’m chalking up to the fact that in Week
1 the Ravens weren’t physically ready to play in the Denver altitude and as the
game progressed they just got fatigued with the up-tempo style. I just don’t
see the Broncos matching up well vs. the Giants 3 WR sets with Cruz in the
inside and Nicks, Randle outside. This will be high-scoring but I see the
Giants doing a better job of protecting the ball and keeping this game competitive.
SEAHAWKS (-3) over 49ers
I get it. Kaepernick does this. Kaepernick does that. He
kisses his biceps. He puts up these numbers, he puts up those numbers. I
totally get it. Here’s kind of the thing though. He kind of HAS to put up those
numbers. What do I mean by that? This San Francisco defense that just gets
lauded week after week (and rightfully so to some degree with some of the personnel
they have on it) but let’s take a look at some of the totals they’ve had hung
on them. Dating back to Week 15 of last year, teams have scored 34, 42, 13, 31,
24, 34, and 28 on them. The 13 was against Arizona in Week 17 at home and to be
honest, considering who Arizona played at QB, giving up 13 points at home to
that team is like giving up 24. So looking at those totals, this defense has
been secretly sieve like except it’s been masked by Kaepernick as he has HAD to generate
at least 4 TD’s to win games. Now the 2 losses amidst those totals are the
Super Bowl and the Week 16 loss.... to guess who the Seattle Seahawks IN
Seattle. How have the Seahawks fared against division opponents at home since
Pete Carroll took over? Just 8-1. That’s all.
This line sits at -3 which seeing as how the Seahawks get a
3 point advantage anyways for being at home, is basically saying that if this
game were played on a neutral field, it would be a Pick ‘Em. And I’m telling
you right now, that’s listed at -3 as a trap. It’s begging for you to take the ‘Niners
and I’m telling you don’t do it. Everyone watched the 49ers play this fun game
where the ball was moving up n’ down the field with both teams scoring.
Meanwhile the Seahawks played in a slugfest of a game against Carolina that was
tough nosed. Like I explained earlier, there is still room in this era for just
a good tough game; it doesn’t necessarily mean it was a poorly executed game. The
public perception is going to be that because the 49ers looked so good against
a high profile team like Green Bay, they could take this game and getting 3
points is huge. Seattle isn’t going to play even remotely close to the same defense
Green Bay did. The Packers were so consumed by trying to stop Kaepernick from
beating them on the run that they completely let Boldin eat up their secondary.
They didn’t have the personnel to match up against Boldin, Seattle does on both
flanks with Sherman or Browner (who I think will play this week). Add in the 12th
man who are looking to break the Guinness World Record for loudest crowd of all
time and its going to be a raucous environment for the 49ers on offense.
Steelers (+7) over BENGALS
I usually don’t like to over-react to what I saw in Week 1.
And the Steelers did look bad. I had them somewhere in the top 12 teams heading
into the season. After Week 1 alone, I’m dropping them near the 20 mark. I just
don’t see what there is to like about this team right now, but I think this
number of 7 is too high. Losing Pouncey is huge and Geno Atkins for the Bengals
had an abnormally quiet game for a player of his caliber. With Pouncey out and
the lights bright on Monday Night, he could just crush the interior line of the
Steelers. Not to mention I don’t see how the Steelers slow down AJ Green when
Chicago struggled mightily trying the same task. But there’s a stat you’ll see
crop up all day Sunday about teams that start the season 0-2 and their chances
about making the playoffs (it’s around 12%). Both of these teams lost Week 1
and it’s a big divisional game on Monday night to see who can bounce-back. And
I think that has been factored into this line because it really should be
either 4 or 6 points, 7 is a bit of a stretch for a team that doesn’t really
have a run game and should struggle to run out the clock if they have a lead.
Nobody is going to want to take the Steelers on this one and the over-inflated
line is screaming “TRAP GAME.” Strange things happen in divisional games and on
Monday Night, so I’m blindly going to play the number of 7 and look for a
backdoor cover.
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 4-11-1
No comments:
Post a Comment