Two title fights, a stacked card, this is gonna be great!! Not just any title fights either but two of the most exciting champs to watch in Jon Jones and Renan Barao. After that exhausting period of 3 fight cards in 8 days it was nice to slow things down, catch a breath and get refreshed for what promises to be an exciting fall and winter in MMA. All right lets get to it.
Jon Jones (C) vs #1 Alexander Gustafsson (Light Heavyweight Championship)
So much reach your head might explode! But no not really. That's just what you have to do to hype up a fight in a division where the champ has ran rampant over just about everyone. Don't get me wrong, I love Gustafsson. Great fighter. He's just, not Jon Jones. They can talk all they want about their reach length and how this will be Jones' toughest test as champion....but it isn't. There is a big difference between having a long reach and utilizing a long reach. Jones has perfected the art of using his reach to create/close distance while striking.
If Gustafsson has one advantage over Jones I feel it's his defensive movement. Jones can sometimes be a little flat footed and has been caught a few times. The reason he hasn't more is because of that huge reach advantage and using it to create distance. Gustafsson has the tools to get passed that, and the better combinations once he does. Outside that though, everything leans Jones.
I see Jones tagging Gustaffson a few times and eventually getting it to the ground. We then will get to see some of those seriously nasty elbows Jones likes to throw. It will then only be a matter of time before a slick submission is thrown on to end the fight. Gustaffson puts up a valiant effort but will slowly succumb to the beatings like just about every other one of Jones' opponents.
Jon Jones via some sorta choke in Round 3
Renan Barao (C) vs #4 Eddie Wineland (Bantamweight Championship)
I can't wait to watch Barao fight again. This guy is one of the most well rounded fighters on the roster, one of the more creative strikers, and a fight IQ that works faster than most minds in the UFC. I really think he deserves better than this fight *cough*Cruz*cough* but it's all that's available right now. Wineland is no walk in the park and is an excellent fighter. But his wins over Pickett and Jorgensen weren't exactly screaming title shot. And Barao has beat both those guys, plus he beat Urijah Faber up pretty bad who was Winelands first loss in the UFC.
I don't see anything that Wineland brings to the table that would make me think he could steal this fight. I guess the usual, turn it into a dirty boxing match and hope you land that one big punch you need to. Wineland does have a little more one-punch power, but Barao is too smart for that. He will use some creative strikes, frustrate the hell out of Wineland and when Eddie gets reckless he will get tagged and ultimately submitted.
Renan Barao by Rear Naked Choke in Round 4
Brendan Schaub vs Matt Mitrione
A couple ex-NFLers going at it in this one. Not necessarily a loser goes home situation, but the loser will be far and away from the top 10, that's for sure. Just about everyone has said this fight will go one of two ways. Mitrione hits that big punch and Schaub crumbles. Or Schaub grinds out an overly boring decision. I really want to say that Mitrione will win this because I think Schaub has one of the worst chins in the heavyweight division. But as we saw with him against Lavar Johnson, if he doesn't want to get knocked out, he will just push you up against he cage, drag you down and grind it out. Mitrione might have better take down defense then Johnson, but eventually it will end up on the mat. Good news is each rounds starts on the feet.
After an excruciating first round to watch, Mitrione comes out fired up in round 2 knowing he lost round 1, and lands a monster uppercut as Schaub tries to go for a take down. Couple shots for good measure and this fight is over.
Matt Mitrione by TKO Round 2
#10 Pat Healy vs Khabib Nurmagomedov
A big fight at 155 lbs. Names might not jump out at you but they will certainly be ingrained in your mind after this fight. Healy has been on an absolute tear the last 2 years since a loss to Josh Thomson (Challenging Anthony Pettis for the Lightweight title this winter). 7 straight wins (Ignore the NC for smoking pot, he still beat up Jim Miller real good) and a new confidence have him a force to be reckoned with at Lightweight. In his way though is the 20-0 Russian, Khabib (not spelling his last name again). With big power in his hands and a great sambo wrestling background, he is one of the best prospects in the division right now.
This is going to come down to the grappling. Healy will need to make sure he secures his takedowns and uses some good striking to set them up. Khabib is no slouch in the grappling end of things so it won't be easy. The second part to this is on the transitions. Khabib has been known to hit guys hard in the transition game, and if Healy misses that takedown he better not get into a swinging match as they are coming apart. I think there is more pressure on Healy to stay in the top 10, than Khabib (who is only 25) to try and enter the top ten. Problem is Healy doesn't deal with pressure well.
Khabib Nurmagomedov via Decision
#7 Costa Philippou vs Francis Carmont
Sooo I wouldn't have guessed I'd see Philippou in the top ten at welterweight....and I thought I hadn't watched a Carmont fight before, but it turns out I just wanted to forget it even happened.....so good start to this...
I am actually rooting for Philippou on this one, simply because Carmont is all to content in winning fights without a single person being excited. Which has a really good chance of happening in this fight. Much like the Mitrione-Schaub fight, this could go one of two ways. There is no thinking on this pick, it's purely a "I wan't this to happen" pick.
Philippou by TKO Round 1
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