Thursday, October 17, 2013

Bik's Thursday Night Week 7 Pick: Power Ranks v2.0

I was originally going to do my power ranks every 4 weeks but then I realized, waaaay too much happens in just 2 weeks in the NFL Season to not do this every 2 weeks. So back again are my current power ranks for the NFL. The Number in brackets are the teams rank from Week 5:


32 (32): Jacksonville Jaguars: They still belong in here, but I can’t believe I’m actually writing this – since Justin Blackmon came back, they’ve actually not been as bad as we think they are...... But they’re still bad. But at least now they might cover some spreads.
31 (30): New York Giants: What the Giants and not the Raiders? Our first leapfrog story so far. The Giants are a mess. So much so that benching Eli Manning has actually become a story. WHYYY would you even bring this up? He’s won 2 Super Bowl’s and he’s not going anywhere. Aside from indirectly waving a white flag and saying we’re just gonna try to draft Clowney, there’s no reason to bench Eli.
30 (28): Tampa Bay Buccaneers: You mean the Raiders jumped 2 teams? They’re actually probably a better team than the Raiders, but when they can’t figure out to not let Mike Glennon throw 43 times in a game because he’s a rookie QB and make the Eagles D look like an actual NFL D, then you deserve to be here.

29 (31): Oakland Raiders: I said it 2 weeks ago that “with Pryor starting they have some cache to them. He gives them some hope.... and having hope is a good thing for a fan-base that needs it.
28 (29): Pittsburgh Steelers: Their win over the Jets gives them a 1 week reprieve from the Group That Can’t Be Helped. But if they can win this week against Baltimore, they continue to have hope.
27 (22): Minnesota Vikings: This is 1 of the reasons I’ve got to do this every 2 weeks. Heading into Week 5 I wrote: “LET THE MATT CASSEL ERA BEGIN!!!!”.... The Matt Cassel era is already over. But at least THE JOSH FREEMAN ERA BEGINS!!!!!
26 (26): Washington Redskins: When you’re the team that loses to the Cowboys when Dallas finally has just a “ho-hum” game, that’s not a good sign. Dallas games need drama every week, and when you’re the team that fails to provide it.... we start to wonder about you.
25 (15) Houston Texans: Yea the only thing this team has to cling to is hope. They’re broken. Mentally. Which is the worst possible type of break to have happen to a team.
24 (25) St. Louis Rams: And the Rams somehow manage to climb above the Texans by virtue of their win over them. This really isn’t a good football team but because they beat Arizona in Week 1, Jacksonville and caught Houston at just the right time, they somehow are 3-3 and continue to have a shot to make the playoffs. If this was the worst of their season and if they can right the ship the rest of the way.... they actually could make the playoffs somehow.
23 (24): Buffalo Bills: Hope seemed to have been lost when EJ Manuel went down. But then Thad Lewis stepped in and nearly pulled off an upset. But now Thad Lewis might not play................ and Matt Flynn might play.

22 (21) San Diego Chargers: How did they manage to move down in the ranks despite beating Indy on Monday Night. Honestly, I’m not too sure. But that’s why they’re in the Furrowed Brow group... a collection of teams that make me just fling up my arms and exasperatedly exclaim “I don’t even know anymore!” But they did manage to catch Indy in a dreaded spot and took full advantage.
21 (20) Tennessee Titans: They’ve got a real defence that is going to make you earn EVERYTHING. And their schedule coming out of the bye next week is really interesting (@ Rams, vs. Jags, vs. Indy, @ Oakland, @ Indy) + they’ll get Locker back. This could be a low team that makes a run in the 2nd half of the season like we always see.
20 (19) New York Jets: These Jets... EEEVERY TIME I THINK I’M OUT... They pullll me back in. Really what I mean is every time I think I’ve figured them out, they prove me wrong. I want to put them in the next group, but when you can beat the Steelers at home and only put up 6 points in the process, you start to get labelled as a Jekyll and Hyde team.
19 (27): Arizona Cardinals: Really the Cardinals are big risers? Absolutely. There’s something to be said about looking back at who you beat and who you lose to when we find out more information about what teams are actually good. For instance, if you got a Week 1 win against Houston, it doesn’t look so good now since we know the Texans aren’t really as good than their pre-season ranking. The flipside can be said for who you lose to. This team is 3-3 with losses against the Rams in Week 1, Saints and 49ers. But they’ve beaten the Lions (who are better than we thought), the Bucs (ok who are worse but still have a tremendous D), and the Panthers (who are a scary team right now... more on them in a bit). So 3-3 and still in play for the Division + the playoffs. I don’t know, there might be something to them. I’m not ready to buy into the hype though. As for some teams that I will...

18 (18): Cleveland Browns: Right when my Brian Hoyer jersey showed up at the door things would go downhill. No I wouldn’t actually get a Hoyer Jersey. They get Green Bay and KC coming up, 2 very tough games, but right after they play all 3 of their divisional opponents. Which is huge. Because I think only 1 team represents this division, so if you can win the division – you’re going to the playoffs. And they already beat the Bengals so they hold that tie-breaker while being 1 game back. Hang onto your Browns going to the playoffs stock even if Weeden is playing.
17 (16): Baltimore Ravens: Oh how the mighty are falling. Well 1 spot. But – they look disjointed. Is really all I can say about this team. Their record has them right in the thick of things for the AFC North, but wins never seem to come easily for them. It feels like a constant struggle to do anything for this team and they’re slowly running out of time to figure it out.

16 (23): Philadelphia Eagles: It’s amazing what some wins will do for you. Not to say that they’ve worked out all the kinks, especially defensively. But what Chip Kelly has installed is working. It’s just going to take way more time to work on the defensive side of the ball. But offensively? It’s there. It’s been exactly what Chip Kelly wants to do. Really take away the freakish numbers Peyton Manning is putting up in Denver and this is the best offense in the league.
15 (13): Carolina Panthers: If Ron Rivera has finally admitted that they need to be more aggressive offensively and coupled with that D, this is 1 of the NFC’s most dangerous teams. Here’s a weird fact you might not know. Did you realize DeAngelo Williams is 10th in the league in rushing yards? And if you take away QB’s and rushers with at least 65 carries, that his yards per attempt are 10th as well? Probably not because if you’re a fantasy football player, he’s hardly recognizable since he’s just not scoring TD’s... but the yardage is there.
14 (9): Atlanta Falcons: Even when the season is imploding you can only go down so far. They still have Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzalez and they still have to play some games at home. They’ll probably slide a bit further, but for now they land at 14. But of all the teams in this group, they’re most likely to fall into the last group.
13 (17) Indianapolis Colts: Right when you thought it was safe to hitch your wagon to the Colts, they put up that showing against San Diego. It was a bad schedule spot for them so I’m not docking them too heavily, just as I didn’t up them too much for winning against Seattle considering how that game unfolded. Like 2 weeks ago, still not sold but I’ve seen more to have them up higher.
12 (14): Cincinnati Bengals: I just feel like Bengals fans should just prepare themselves mentally now for when it’s either Week 17 or the Wildcard Round and their down 6 and need to go down the field with Andy Dalton. It’s not going to end well.
11 (10) Chicago Bears: You’ll notice this grouping is becoming rather large but that’s because more teams emerge from the last group and we now have to consider them. Next time we do this I believe this group will be pared down quite a bit. And this could be 1 of the teams that isn’t in this group next time. In which direction they go, I’m not sure. Their defence is secretly bad. Basically if they’re not getting an interception, you can move the ball on them all you want. Teams are putting up 35 yards a drive on them, which is 29th in the league. The offense has masked most of it, but it’s entirely possible that Washington runs all over them this week. All while they get ready to head into a bye week then play Green Bay.
10 (8) Miami Dolphins: Getting Cam Wake back is going to be a huge lift for this team. He just completes their defense. And you hope with more manageable deficits or leads in general, Ryan Tannenhill can play a better game. This 4 week stretch coming out of the bye is going to be their season.
9 (11) Detroit Lions: Their D is holding up. I still don’t necessarily like the pieces on it, but they’re holding up.
8 (12) Dallas Cowboys: I mentioned above about that “ho-hum” game against Washington. It’s exactly what they needed coming off that Denver game. Just a no-drama no nonsense game. This offense is SOOOO good that if the D can just kind of catch up and play decent, they could be playing in January.

7 (7): Kansas City Chiefs: They’re officially in the playoffs and they don’t even need to beat Denver to get there. Have you seen their upcoming schedule? At already 6-0 they have vs. Houston, vs. Cleveland, @ Buffalo, Bye week then Denver. That could be 9-0 and still get games vs. San Diego, @ Washington, @ Oakland.
6 (6): San Francisco 49ers: There might have been a 1-2 week span where I thought the 49ers might slide and miss the playoffs, but a win in Tennessee this week followed by a win in Jacksonville next week puts them in prime position for another date in January.
5 (4): Green Bay Packers: They slide really only because of injuries. No Cobb and No Mathews could spell real trouble. But when you had Aaron Rodgers... Well I think this is the only relevant quote.
4 (5): New England Patriots: 5-1 without Gronkowski. Unreal. And add in a classic Brady moment vs. New Orleans and it’s all going to depend on how much their defence can hold up with all the injuries.
3 (3): New Orleans Saints: You know you’re ok when you lose a game and retain a 3 game lead on the division.
2 (2): Seattle Seahawks: Could that game against Tennessee have been any stranger? But they persevered and maintain the #2 spot behind....
1 (1): Denver Broncos: #ScoreAllThePoints

Home team in CAPS:

Seahawks (-5.5) over CARDINALS
I’m not so sure the old rule of fading the Seahawks on the road still applies. Yes they lost to Indy as favourites, but let’s look back at their road games. Since Week 5 of last year they’re 8-2 ATS on the Road (10-2 if you want to include 2 pre-season games). They manage to be in the game every week and with Larry Fitzgerald on a bad wheel with a hamstring injury, I don’t see Arizona generating too many points offensively so it’ll have to come on special teams and defence. But Seattle is going to be looking to limit mistakes especially after last weeks’ gaffes.

Rest of Week 7 picks on Friday

Last Week: 5-10

This Season: 41-49-2

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