Week 8 Picks: There’s like 80 teams on bye this week, it’s
ridiculous... the slate of games is very awkward.... but actually there are 6:
Chicago, Tennessee, Indianapolis, San Diego, Baltimore, and Houston..... Mind
you really only 1 of those teams is a big draw, yet there are still no good games.
Is that a statement of this season? Is this why my picks are floundering? Home
teams are in CAPS
Panthers (-7) over BUCCANEERS
The Panthers beat the Buccaneers 31-13 on Thursday Night.
I NEEEEAAAARRRRLLLLYYY picked the Jaguars – before I
remember this game is in London. So Jacksonville isn’t even an actual HOME DOG
here. They’re just Jacksonville – but in London instead. The only weird part of
his game is that the huge time difference could screw around with the 49ers but
even half groggy a team as good as SF should be able to walk over the Jags. But
it is 2+ scores..... Man this is conflicting..... And I hate San Francisco.
Actually let’s think about this again. The Jaguars were 19 point underdogs when
they travelled to SEATTLE... the league’s best home field advantage. And now
they’re 16 point dogs in London, where they might actually have fans, to the 49ers
who are on the road. Does this math add up? Who is going to be more prepared
for this game. The 49ers are essentially on vacation in London for a game they’ll
definitely win then have an upcoming bye to play the suddenly hot Carolina
Panthers. Isn’t this a classic “Ok let’s just get out of this game” game – a 24-10
gets it done and they can start off their bye. Meanwhile the Jaguars owner also
owns Fulham FC which plays in London. You don’t think a bit of extra pressure
is going to be laid upon the team to be fully focused on this game. DAMNIT – IT’S
ENOUGH POINTS & HOME DOG!........................................ JAGUARS (+16)
over 49ers I need help....
LIONS (-3) over Cowboys
Quite the valiant effort by the Cowboys front 7 last week
stopping LeSean McCoy and holding that Eagles offense. I don’t think it
continues. Because I mean everything else about the NFL this season zig-zags.
When you think 1 thing, it goes the other way. So just when you think the
Cowboys can over-come injuries to their defensive front, they won’t.....
EAGLES (-5.5) over Giants
The Eagles have to win a home game eventually right? Vick
returning helps because goodness me things got awkward with Nick Foles. I know
the receivers dropped some passes but Vick will help the running game to get
LeSean McCoy going again. Against an awful defence.
CHIEFS (-7.5) over Browns
Things have gotten so dire for Browns fans that they have
turned the keys to the offense over to Jason Campbell. Before you think “Hey –
I’ve heard of Jason Campbell isn’t he at least half decent?” You know, you
might be right and I tried doing some research on Jason Campbell. Except I got distracted
when I punched Jason Campbell into google a “Jason Campbell linkedin” was 1 of the
top suggested searches. Needless to say that told me everything I needed to
know. Also since you were probably wondering – here’s a list of the Jason
Campbell’s on Linkedin.
Bills (+11) over SAINTS
Thad Lewis Alert! In a week where I went 5-10 I shouldn’t do
much bragging but when I call that the Bills would win outright while being 7
point ‘dogs – I’m going to highlight it. Can they win this one? Not likely.....
In fact picking them at all here might be a bit awkward since the Saints are
coming off a loss and a bye week. I like both points in their favour. But I’m
buying into everything Bills Coach Doug Marrone is selling. The team
continually puts up points and this defence is only getting healthier with each
passing week. Suddenly Mario Williams is a monster in a Bills uniform.
PATRIOTS (-6.5) over Dolphins
I wish I could change this before Sunday because a part of
me is terrified that this is so high. But back at home with a visiting
divisional opponent with another week of Gronk under their belt, I feel like
they get this done. I know they lost last week to the Jets but they were
basically a Tom Brady mis-throw from winning. If he hits Gronk in stride they
win that game (and cover). Instead it was 2 yards too high and Gronk has to try
to 1 hand a pass his first week back. And he hardly looked out of place
already. 8 Receptions, 114 yards. Along with MegaTron and Jimmy Graham, there’s
just no covering him. You just can’t.
Jets (+6.5) over BENGALS
I’m going with another zig-zag theory on this game. Just
when you think you can trust Andy Dalton (after his freakish performance last
week.... seriously where does he get off throwing downfield successfully, 5
completions of over 20 yards... He has 7 total now on the year, it was an
outlier performance), he gets to go against a top defence that is going to
generate pressure up the middle. I called out the Jets for selecting 2
defensive players in the draft rather than getting offensive playmakers, and
considering the way Tavon Austin has become a worldwide drop in fantasy
leagues, they made the right call. Plus factor in the way Sheldon Richardson is
eviscerating offensive lines... they made the right call. The Jets aren’t going
to let Law Firm and Gio Bernard run on them (3rd Run D) meaning it’s
going to be up to Dalton. Defensively the loss of Leon Hall gives me juuuuuuust
enough hope for Geno Smith not to be awkward on the road. TD too much for me to
trust Dalton.
RAIDERS (+2.5) over Steelers
HOME DOG! Also this is the game nobody will watch. Move
along – nothing to see here. Although there’s a lot of games this week nobody
will watch. Seriously who made this schedule, why are 6 teams on bye this week
but only 2 last week. Couldn’t it have gone 4 and 4? Why the irregular bye’s –
not like there are Thursday games forcing teams into short weeks needing long
rests along.... Or games played overseas resulting in the extra long
rest.............. Oh wait....... but hey let’s go to 18 games!!!!! Just wait
till we get a Thursday game in London – you know it’s coming.
Redskins (+12) over BRONCOS
Now that RGKnee is actually running a full playbook and manoeuvring
to make plays – This is a dangerous line. He can be so athletic to supersede
double digit spreads. Even when teams are guarding against his mobility he
should be elude, evade, extend and create plays that he wasn’t through a few
weeks. Am I buying too much into him considering the Redskins? Yeah
probably.... but 12 points is still
Falcons (+2.5) over CARDINALS
I feel kind of bad for Matt Ryan. While he had potential to
develop into his own QB, but now that we see more about him it’s painfully
clear. He’s dangerously close to slipping into either the Tony Romo Zone (a
likeable guy that just can’t win and we end up feeling bad for) or The Phillip
Rivers Zone (an unlikeable guy who thinks his team should have won more than
they did and puts on a scowl when things go wrong or this
face when it goes right). The rest of this season will determine which way
he goes – if he continues to perform the way he is and turns on his coaching
staff and teammates and throws them under the bus for this horrid season, he
goes the way of Rivers and we just hate him till at least 2018. But if he just
waddles through this bad year, takes his lumps... then even if he loses next
year (high probability of happening again), he’ll drift into Romo 2.0. As for
this week, I’m still using the trend of teams being 0-6 against the spread the
week after they play the Seahawks.
Packers (-9) over VIKINGS
How is it that the Packers are first place in their division
+ be a high profile team and NOBODY is talking about them. I think we all took Aaron Rodgers a bit too
literally last year when they whooped the Texans on Sunday Night. Here they
are again on a Sunday night on the road in a dome. The Vikings meanwhile are spinning
their QB wheel which this week has landed on Christian Ponder. Which is amazing
since the Vikings are still trying to get Freeman
to practice on a Friday practice when he missed the week and is already
been deemed inactive for Sunday. But yes – they have faith in Christian Ponder.
And underrated subplot for the Packers. Their Defence...... hasn’t been awful.
They aren’t forcing a lot of turnovers (7 to date) but their Run D is best in
the league. And their Pass D is right in the middle but I wonder how much of the
yardage against them is junk-time stats when they worked over Washington and
RG3 put up a bunch of 2nd half stats, plus also last week when they
took care of the Browns.
1 last point on Ponder. I think this could only happen to
Vikings fans. They finally feel like they moved on from the tyranny of
Christian Ponder by going to the vanillaness of Matt Cassel only for a gust of
hope to come in by way the lethargy of Josh Freeman. Except that only lasts
BARELY 2 weeks as Freeman is essentially auditioning for his career in the next
9 weeks but he’s already been dinged up with concussion syndromes, and through
all this Vikings fans have to revert BACK to Ponder. This is an entire season’s
plot for most teams, heck if not 2 seasons, but this is just October for Minnesota
Fans. SKOL? More like LOL..... Also just want to point out I have no idea what
in the world “SKOL” is but I see it in every Minnesota post (and I’m too lazy
to Google it), and I wanted to work it into a piece eventually.
Seahawks (-11) over RAMS
I’m actually going to applaud the Rams for calling
up Brett Favre. Look at what the rules are right now in the NFL... You
telling me Brett Favre couldn’t accidently put up 3000 yards considering defenders
can’t touch Wide Receivers and he’s smart enough to get the ball out of his
hands quickly (See: Things Brandon Weeden can’t do). And why wouldn’t you call
Brett Favre just for the sake of generating interest. This game is on Monday
night – and people in St. Louis could hardly care because the Red Sox will be
in town to play Game 5 of the World Series vs. the Cardinals. If Brett Favre is
on the team – suddenly this might be a decent ticket. Now? Really, people are
thrilled to watch Kellen Clemens play versus the Legion of Boom? Is this even going
to feel like a home game for the Rams? Plus calling Favre means I can watch this again and have it
feel topical.
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 5-10
This Season: 46-59-2
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