Due to some scheduling conflicts didn’t get a chance to post
my Thursday Night Pick but just know it was documented between TJ and I that I
picked Dolphins +3.... I know it looks shady since my picks are struggling this
year and I’m posting that I got the game right the day after, but just make a
leap of faith.
I was going to write something about the Sedins’ re-signing with
the Canucks but it was getting excessively long and this piece is generally
saved for the NFL Picks so I’ll have that for you next week. So onto the picks –
on bye this week: Denver, Detroit, New York Giants, Arizona, San Francisco,
Jacksonville. Home teams are in CAPS.
DOLPHINS (+3) over Bengals
The Dolphins beat the Bengals 22-20 on Thursday Night.
PANTHERS (-7.5) over Falcons
I’m going to keep riding the Panthers until they prove me
otherwise. They’re playing ferocious
football, albeit against some weaker opponents, but these Falcons are a weaker
opponent. In the trenches is where the Panthers might be 1 of the league’s best
teams and the Falcons are one of the worst.
Vikings (+10) over Cowboys
2 putrid defences. I think the Cowboys are already looking
ahead to next week vs. the Saints. This is a nice game to return to normalcy
following that deflating loss so it might not be a maximum effort game for
them. Minnesota meanwhile – they’re playing for jobs right now basically. All
over the place, the coaching staff, the defence, the QB. It’s a bit of a mess
but 10 points a lot especially when you’ve got the MVP of the league on your
side.
JETS (+6) over Saints
Vegas got their asses handed to them last week with all the
favourites winning. And you’ll notice this week has a slew of HOME DOGS.
Starting with the game on Thursday night (which I swear I picked Miami!), there
will be 7 HOME DOGS this week. That’s – a lot. It feels like a huge over
adjustment to try to get people to take more favourites this week and then bam!
Market re-corrects itself and the house always wins. The Saints are in brutal
scheduling spot here I feel. Following this game and since September 22nd
the Saints will have played 4 AFC opponents with the Chicago Bears sandwiched in
between. For those scoring at home, that’s 4 non-conference teams and 1 non-divisional
opponent. After this game they have Dallas on deck in a Sunday Night game. Then
the 49ers, then the Falcons, then the Seahawks on Monday night. And just to cap
it all off, the suddenly surging Panthers which could be a game that has a lot
more meaning if the Panthers keep ripping off wins and the Saints stumble in a seemingly
murderous row of games. So this game is just a blah game for them. And their
road games are the 1’s they’ve struggled in. The Jets meanwhile are about to
head into the bye and coming off that embarrassing loss to the Bengals. You’re
going to get a maximum effort game from them here because they don’t want to
stew in the stink of defeat in the bye week. Plus – HOME DOG!
Titans (-3) over RAMS
Ok this is the 1 HOME DOG I’m going against and for good
reason. It’s a short week for the Rams and the Titans are coming off a bye. It
gives Jake Locker a chance to heal from his injury and don’t forget he was
legit before he had to head to the sidelines. Tennessee has lost 3 in a row –
but look who they’ve lost to: vs. KC, @ Seattle, vs. San Fran.... soooo 3 of
the best 7 teams (mini-spoiler alert for my Power Ranks of where I rate those 3
teams). Outside of their running game and pass rush – did anything impress you
about St. Louis on Monday night? Well their running back got lightly banged up and
they won’t be going against out of position 2nd stringers on the
offensive line this week.
Now a quick side-note... I wanted to bring up the Golden
Tate taunting penalty – and considering it involves a Seahawks player you’d
think the sidebar would come up in the Seahawks pick section, but it’s not and
that’s because of the Rams secondary. This paragraph isn’t meant to come across
as a Seahawks fan just “backing up our players.” Because that’s not the
intention here – it was an unnecessary move by Tate. But this is the 2nd
week in a row a player has been flagged for taunting the Rams secondary.
Specifically a Wide Receiver that was being covered by Janoris Jenkins. 2 weeks
ago it was Steve Smith. Say what you want about Golden Tate’s attitude (he
doesn’t have a great one – it’s pretty telling when the team put him and
Russell Wilson together as roommates when Wilson was a rookie), but when a vet
like Steve Smith calls out Janoris Jenkins for his trash-talking habits, and
then Tate gets demonized for his actions – you have to look at what might have
triggered it... and here’s Smith on Jenkins from the week prior:
Steve Smith is my hero. So before we lash out on the actions
of Golden Tate – perhaps we should look at the words from Janoris Jenkins. If
what Tate was doing was so demonstrative and bad for the game, how is
personally attacking players any better. There is a line in trash talking that
you can cross, and if you do – don’t be so surprised to see it manifest in
taunting and come back at you. You can see the angst in Steve Smith’s eyes on
that last line. Whatever Jenkins was saying crossed a line and he very well
could have done the same to Golden Tate. And yes I’m aware how awkward it is to
question a trash talker when Richard Sherman plays on my favourite team – but it’s
not like there’s video/audio of Sherman’s on the field trash talk to show he
doesn’t go after players families....... OH WAIT THERE IS!
BILLS (+3.5) over Chiefs***
In the off-chance Thad Lewis starts at QB for the Bills – I’ll
keep this as is because it is a HOME DOG, and I really think the Bills are
supremely underrated. But if it’s Matt Flynn or Jeff Tuel or basically anybody
other than Thad Lewis.... Take the Chiefs. If it is Lewis though, I’ll make the
same prediction I made about the Bills 2 weeks ago when they were 6 point dogs.
They win outright. That’s right – even if an injured Thad Lewis plays against
the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs... The Buffalo Bills will win thus allowing
the ’72 Dolphins to pop the champagne for another season of failed undefeated
teams. Of course when they realized Alex Smith was the last remaining unbeaten
QB they probably already popped it. Also – HOME DOG! (if Thad Lewis Plays) *** LATE CHANGE: This got moved to +5 - keep the Bills pick
REDSKINS (+1) over Chargers
The Chargers are coming off a bye but they’ve got to travel
to the far coast when they have Denver on tap next week. Not sure it’s the best
spot for them especially when they give up a league worst 4.8 yards on the
ground. And Washington fans are calling out the team for not running the ball
enough last week vs. Denver. You might see that get skewed back to a far normal
and pleasing rate this week vs. the Chargers who bleed running yards. And....
HOME DOG!
RAIDERS (-2.5) over Eagles
There’s a slew of Games You Won’t Be Watching – but of all of
them... this leads the pack. It would be cool if Mike Vick was playing so we
could see the former Mike Vick and really the current Mike Vick in Terrelle
Pryor. I really have no feel over this game, I just don’t trust the Eagles
again after watching them lay an egg against the Giants at home.
SEAHAWKS (-16) over Buccaneers
It’s a ridiculous amount of points – but we know this team
loves playing at home. And they’ve played 1 home game since September 22nd.
They love to put on a show for the home-crowd and the Bucs offence can’t do
much, let alone do I trust them to come to Seattle and face the 12th
man and put up any points. Seattle’s offence is abysmal right now with the
offensive line injuries but I suspect they’ll face some short fields this week
with Glennon struggling. And actually 1 last thing about the whole Golden Tate
thing:
BROWNS (+2.5) over Ravens
Was Jason Campbell – not awful? Or was that just me? It’s
another Game You Won’t Be Watching – so I’m moving on. But – HOME DOG!
Steelers (+6.5) over PATRIOTS
I have almost no idea what to make of this game. Because I
think I have Pittsburgh too low in my power ranks (I’ll release the next update
on Thursday), but I also think I have New England too high... but I’m not sure
how I can move either. They sit at 27th and 5th
respectively. But there’s a strong part of me that thinks Pittsburgh can win
this game. I don’t even really know why. It’s the 1 game I feel really sketchy
about – but I really like the spot for the Steelers here as they come off a
downer game in Oakland. You can kind of forgive them for that one since they
were probably already looking ahead to this game. The Patriots get set to go
into the bye after this game and there’s just something about this Pats team
that seems off this year. In years past you might say that they would will
themselves to a win going into the bye, but something feels off this year.....
Well really, everything seems off when you read things like this.
TEXANS (+2.5) over Colts
When I talked about this game a few weeks ago, I was assuming the Colts would
be coming off a loss to Denver. Not their biggest win of this groups tenure and going
into the bye flying high with huge wins and a hot streak. You don’t get up from
the table when you’re on a heater. And the bye week will cool off the Colts. On
the flip side the Texans went into their bye week with a slew of losses but it
ended with a 1 point loss to the undefeated Chiefs. And that was with Case Keenum
at QB. They bumped their alarming trend of turnovers in that loss to the Chiefs
and this team isn’t as bad as their record reflects. If anything the stats show
that they’re a pretty good team aside from the turnover problem that they’ve
suffered through the first 7 games. The hope is that problem regresses towards
the mean and it rights the ship for them in the 2nd half. And.....
HOME DOG!!!
PACKERS (-10.5) over Bears
I said it a few weeks ago that the Bears defence might
secretly be bad. It’s no longer a secret. With Cutler I’d say a line of about
7.5-8 would be open to a backdoor cover, but without Smokin’ Jay... I just don’t
see how they keep up with Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers continues to be freakily
scary. It just doesn’t matter who is in the Wide Receiver spots, they’ll
produce. And the Packers D continues to hold up and slow down running attacks
and if they only have to go up against Josh McCown, they can stack the box and
slow up Matt Forte.
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 4-9
This Season: 54-77-2
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