Ok I said I would have a take to write about + my picks this week.... but the truth is that after going 5-10 last week, and being 8 games under .500 on the year (heading into the week, now 7 games after the win on Thursday night #GoHawks), I decided to buckle down and really dedicate myself to the picks this week to right the ship to get back on track. The goal is to be 5 games over .500 by the end of Week 8.... it starts with these 15 picks.
Home teams are in CAPS. Raiders and Saints are on bye weeks.
Seahawks (-5.5) over CARDINALS
The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 34-22 on Thursday Night.
Patriots (-3.5) over JETS
Gronk Gronk Gronk Gronk! Glad he’s back but I don’t know if
he will be the difference. Weird to say that this will actually be a
defensive battle considering it’s the Patriots. But they aren’t in the top half
for yards per drive, now they haven’t exactly had their normal pieces
offensively so that hinders it but I don’t think this is the game that gets it
back to a regular spot. Here's what I like about this game: I know it was a short week which tends to lead to
screwy games, but the Jets were precariously close to winning the previous
matchup between these 2 teams. Which would tend to make you think that if they nearly got it right last time, why couldn't they this time? Because Bellichick only had 3 days to prepare for Geno Smith and barely any film. Now he gets a full week plus a third of a seasons film to study this guy?!? Uh-Oh. If, and it’s a big if, the Jets can settle Geno down
early – which being at home should help that, they might be able to make
things simple enough for him to not get too erratic. But I think The Hoodie is going to conjure things the rookie has never seen before to rattle his cage and get him thinking instead of just playing. If this wasn't a divisional game, I'd maybe think it is a letdown spot for the Patriots considering the big win they had against New Orleans, but the way that happened with a young wide receiver making the big play when they've struggled to begin the year and this being a division game I think buoys their motivation. And I know what you're thinking - "Bik - you're going against a HOME DOG?!?" Don't worry - more to come on those. Well only one - and they're next. And yes - its Jacksonville!
JAGUARS (+7.5) over Chargers
Remember last week I said I need an intervention on taking
the Jaguars... Well: “They
tried to make me go to Rehab, I said NOooo nOooo Nooooo!” Fresh off
covering the league’s biggest spread in history, they come back home and bring in
a team in a bad spot. I mean, when is playing the Jags a good spot? Remember
when the Chargers beat Dallas? Who did they play the week after? The Raiders –
and lost. Then they come back and get another big win at home against the Colts
(who were also in a bad schedule spot) and now they get to travel cross-country
to play an early game against a now revived Jaguars team. They’ve put up 20 and
19 points since Justin Blackmon’s return, and I don’t see the Chargers being
able to put up enough points in a letdown game, even if it’s against
Jacksonville. Of the morning games this is “The Game You Won’t Watch #1.” And –
HOME DOG!! Can't believe I'm even going to say this - the Jags COULD win this. Realistically, if you want to believe they aren't going 0-16 - this game and the November 17th game at home against Arizona are their best chances (and they're still 7.5 point 'dogs).
CHIEFS (-6.5) over Texans
Could these two teams be on more opposing ends of the
spectrum? 1 is completely broken and teetering on the brink of NFL Relativity,
while the other is surging. Seriously though, what would make you want to tune
into a Houston game? Just to see how low the ship sinks? Here’s the brutal
part, they actually have decent stats since they’re top 10 in both offensive
and defensive yardage per drives. But their awfulness might transcend the
stats.
LIONS (-2.5) over Bengals
This is going to be a cool game featuring 2 of the top Wide
Receivers in the game. Except 1 of them has a QB that isn’t an elite thrower.
Andy Dalton perfectly describes this Bengals team. I like to use drive stats from
Football Outsiders as a good barometer of how a team does, and they’re
perfectly average at everything. Which is exactly what Andy Dalton is. I’d
rather have him than about 12 other starters, you could convince me he’s about equal with about 6
others, but he’s not better than the other 13. And that’s exactly what this
Bengals team is, which is why despite their perceived success with wins against
Green Bay and New England, I haven’t wanted to raise them too high in my power
ranks as I have them 12th. To be honest, they just as easily could have lost those games because they get the flukey fumble-TD play against Green Bay and then if Danny Amendola rolls the correct way at the goal-line, New England gets a TD rather than a FG and changes the complexion of that game. The Lions meanwhile continue to have
success defensively on 3rd down (teams convert 28% on 3rd
against them) and since Cincy isn’t exactly blowing anybody away with their 3.7
yards per carry they could find themselves needing Dalton to throw and convert 3rd
n’ longs on Sunday. He’s a 50% thrower on 3rd n’ 6+ Yards.
Bills (+7) over DOLPHINS
Thad Lewis Alert!!! Fun fact about the Bills: Despite
playing the Patriots, Panthers, Jets, Ravens, Browns, Bengals (all teams that
rank in the top 15 in Points Allowed), they’ve put up at least 20 points... in
every game. Even with Cameron Wake coming back this will probably be the
easiest defense they’ve played so far, and I think the trend continues. So the
question becomes... can the Dolphins put up 30? I think not. I'll even go so far to say that the Bills WIN THIS outright. Am I crazy? I'm picking Thad Lewis, so I'm crazy maybe #LameCallMeMaybeReset
Bears (Pick ‘Em) over REDSKINS
Where do I even begin with RG3. If you haven’t heard RG3
made comments about trying to lure players in taking late hit penalties
while he goes out of bounds, then said
he was misquoted. Even if he was misquoted, the fact is it became a story
and if there’s even a shred of truth to it, it makes me seriously question
RG3’s mental awareness and understanding of the severity of his situation. He’s
coming off major knee surgery. That’s all you really need to know. Why are you
trying to pick up 15 meaningless yards in a season game when you are already
working on a recuperating knee. If he can’t figure that out on his own.....
then enjoy RG3 now because come 2017 he might be out of the league. As for this
game, I just think Cutler/Forte/Marshall tear up that Redskins D who are the
defensive equivalent of a 2 year old trying to fight me off for a piece of
Halloween candy. Resistance is futile.
EAGLES (-3) over Cowboys
Things are starting to click for the Eagles. You win a
couple of low-key games which is kind of what this team needed. We haven’t
heard much fan-fare from Philly for a few weeks and that’s a good sign because
they needed to get away from the spotlight for a bit and focus on football. And
like I mentioned yesterday, it’s really just Peyton that is screwing them up
for looking superior offensively. But if you just look at them without looking
at Denver it’s some pretty remarkable numbers. They’ve got 24 more rushing
yards per game.... than the #2 TEAM. Putting up 174 yards on the ground and
they get to play a team in Dallas that is just bleeding yardage defensively all
while having a completely banged up front 4 this week. And here's a weird trend that I think has to end soon. They've lost 8 in a row at home. Amazing. Time for that trend to be bucked.
PANTHERS (-6.5) over Rams
The Panthers are for real and the Rams are not – that’s
everything that I have to say about this game because this will be “The Game
You Don’t Watch #2.” There’s a reckoning on the verge, and it resides in
Carolina. I don’t know if they already squandered their chance to make the
playoffs, but the stock might be low enough that it’s worth buying into now.
FALCONS (-7) over Buccaneers
The narrative for the Falcons not losing after a loss,
ESPECIALLY at home died when they lost to the Jets... at home... on Monday
Night.... following a loss to the Patriots... at home..... So why take them a 3rd
time at home. Because Tampa can’t seem to figure out that making your rookie
QB, who really isn’t that good, throw 43 times a game isn’t a winning strategy.
In this spot here, I like that the Falcons are coming off a bye which they went
into it on a loss. This gives them everything to play for here, and losing
Julio sucks for them, but it’s not like they don’t have Tony G. And it's not like they aren't playing Greg Schiano. I really want to like what Schiano is doing, trying to be a no nonsense guy and hold everyone accountable... but when you make boneheaded calls in games and cost your team wins, it doesn't hold as much water.
49ers (-4) over TITANS
Without sounding too much like a Seahawks homer, but that
game last week vs. the Titans wasn’t even cloooose. It took 1 of the stranger players you’ll
ever see on that Field Goal return for them to even get to 13 points and they
still lost by 7 (that play as the difference in them covering as well).
Fitzpatrick isn’t AWFUL, but he’s not a guy you want when you’re down in a game
and that’s what is gonna happen right now when you go against top NFL teams. They aren't going to get the same benefit of being up against an injured offensive line and actually get to play 1 of the best O-Lines in the game. Plus weird trend, but the team that plays Seattle the week before hasn't covered a spread the following week. If this was 6 points maybe I'd lean towards the HOME DOG - but not at 4. Also if you haven't noticed I'm just going to capitalize every HOME DOG from this point onwards this season.
Browns (+10) over PACKERS
I’m starting to worry that the injuries are mounting for the
Packers now with Cobb out, and they already looked sloppy and out of sync last
week. Gimme the points here when you get a resolute defensive team like the
Browns in even though they can’t do much offensively. And yes I’m well aware
that by the 2 minute warning of the 1st half and Brandon Weeden
trying to run a 2 minute drill to get the Browns marginally back in the game
from a 24-3 deficit, that I’ll be asking myself “What was I thinking?!?”
Ravens (+2.5) over STEELERS
Remember when this game used to have meaning and be exciting
to watch 60 minutes of defensive grind it out in your face football. Now it has
a “can we get this over with?” feel to it. It’ll be nice to see the clash of
jersey’s again, but this game is definitely lacking its previous mystique and
allure. Now while Baltimore struggles to do anything coherently offensively, but when the Steelers are trading for offensive lineman and they get hurt even
before suiting up – that’s a problem. Now Baltimore’s offensive line is woeful
as well, but in pass-protection they’ve been much better than the run. This
might be a classic low-scoring Baltimore-Pittsburgh game, but I doubt it’ll
have anything to do with defence, but more about offensive inefficiency.
Broncos (-6.5) over COLTS
Let me just review my Peyton Manning checklist: In a dome?
Check. Primetime game? Check. Ample time to prepare for this game? Check (they
played the Jags last week so really he’s had 2 weeks for this game). At home?
Check (who has played more games in that dome? Peyton or Luck... this is barely
a road game for Peyton). Against a team on a short week? Check. Against a
defense that just got SHREDDED by Phillip Rivers on Monday night? Check. A
spread less than TD? Check.
Here’s a difference between this game and the Broncos –
Cowboys game from a few weeks ago. Dallas isn’t a running team, Indianapolis
is. So if you want to get in a shootout with Denver you’re going to have to
pass on them which fits into Dallas’ wheelhouse. I don’t feel like Indy wants
that, which is why they’ve adapted to this power run game, went out and got
Trent Richardson to churn those tough yards to retain the ball while limiting possessions from teams. That’s all well and good, but if you’re limiting
possessions, you’re also limiting your own possessions to keep up with Denver,
and Indy doesn’t have a good enough defense to do that with Denver. Peyton is going to score touchdowns, especially now that he's ticked off at Colts owner Jim Irsay. Indy is upping their own degree of difficulty if this is the way they want to go,
whereas Dallas went into shootout mode and tried to beat them by being aggressive. You can't cower and hope you land a big punch against a giant. If you want to take out the giant- you need to go blow for blow with them and show no fear. Add in the return of Von Miller + Champ Bailey and I don’t see this game being
close.
Vikings (+3.5) over GIANTS
Why exactly against ANYBODY are the Giants favoured by more
than a field goal? I get that it’s against Minnesota, but Peterson will be able
to run over this D All-Day (see what I did there?) and Freeman is at least a
capable downfield thrower opening things up for this offense. As much as the
Giants have the nice 10 day rest coming off an away game to come back home, they still have severe fundamental flaws, like you know – blocking, tackling,
general football awareness. The Vikes are at least... below average in these
departments.
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 5-10
This Season: 42-49-2
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