Despite the main event looking having the appearance of a snoozer, I think it could be a great technical fight. Now those aren't the fights people always want to see, but it will be an excellent showcase of grappling both for position and control. Thankfully the fights should be pretty exciting up until that point and fans just need to have the patience for the one fight that might feel like it drags on. On to the predictions now.
#4 Damien Maia vs Jake Shields
Please, please, please OH PLEASE don't be 5 rounds of stand up. I couldn't stand it. Neither man has shown any sort of capability on their feet. So what do I want you ask? Can't believe I am gonna say this. BRING ON THE GRAPPLING! No really. You have Maia who has some of (if not the best) Jiu Jitsu in the UFC versus a man with 10 career submission wins and is known for excellent grappling.
So how's it going to play out? Well it's obvious Shields (despite a nice winning streak) is on the decline and Maia appears on the upswing. Shields fights similar to Jon Fitch and we just watched Maia out-Fitch, Fitch. I'm not gonna say it's going to be easy for Maia, but if he sticks to his usual aggressive grappling style he should have opportunities to finish. Don't think he gets them but he should control the fight.
If you want to expand your MMA horizons, watch this fight and learn the intricacies of good grappling. Might not be exciting, but you will learn a lot.
Damien Maia by Grinding Decision
Erick Silva vs Dong Hyun Kim
I am all aboard the Erick Silva hype train. The kid is exciting to watch, and is a real marketable piece in the Welterweight division. This will be a tough test for him though as his last fight was also against a really tough wrestler in Jon Fitch, and he just couldn't handle the pace. Kim will likely look to grind this one out and neutralize Silva's flashy strikes, but he just doesn't have the same skill set as Fitch to do that. Hopefully Silva has learned from his last fight and will come in with a better game plan than he did his last fight out.
I think you see Silva get smothered in the first round but comes out hard in the second and lands a big knee as Kim comes in for a takedown. Silva has excellent submissions as well and given any opportunity to finish the fight he will. Especially in front of a Brazilian crowd.
Erick Silva by Submission Round 2
Thiago Silva vs Matt Hamill
No offense to Hamill, but he should have stayed retired. I admire him coming back but he just isn't the same. Silva on the other hand has been looking better as of late. If he could only pass a drug test he would have wins in 3 of his last 4, with his only loss there coming to the man who took Jon Jones to the brink, Alexander Gustafsson. His striking is so dangerous and really if Hamill can't stay in control by using his wrestling he will get beat up. Badly.
Silva is a ruthless, mean man who will strike hard and fast early and will probably end this fight before we see the end of the first round. I am going to say knockout of the night in this fight.
Thiago Silva by KO Round 1
Fabio Maldonado vs Joey Beltran
This fight is serving no purpose but entertainment value. But what value we are going to get. Guys that love to slug it out, known for being able to take a punch (or a 100) and both know that an uneventful fight could mean the door for them. Maldonado is very one dimensional, Beltran is slightly better than one dimensional, so why don't we just stay in that dimension boys.
If Beltran wants he could use his wrestling to maybe take Maldonado down and lay some ground and pound, but I don't think he does that unless he gets rocked with a real good shot. I really want both guys to walk to the middle of the octagon and just start throwing bombs for every one's entertainment. If they do that, then it's possible both men still have a job with the UFC next week.
Oh right...a winner....uhh....the fans if things go well...But I will say Beltran lands that always game changing take down, some point late in the fight to give him the decision.
Joey Beltran by Slugfest Split Decision
Rousimar Palhares vs Mike Pierce
Palhares will make his Welterweight debut, but it looks like he will end up with the same results he was having at Middleweight. Mike Pierce is an underrated Welterweight whose only losses in the last 4 years have come from former title contenders Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck and current #1 contender Johnny Hendricks. Outside that he has been pretty good. Now the competition he has faced isn't upper echelon but I don't really think Palhares is either.
I'm sure everyone is hoping for Palhares to grab a leg and rip it off (me too), it just isn't going to happen. Fighters realized if they can keep their limbs away from Palhares (or in Alan Belchers case just giving it to him and then knocking him out for even trying) they can typically find a way to win. Palhares' soft chin will get tested again, and as he has show, he does not like to get hit. He also doesn't have the greatest gas tank, and dropping a weight class never rectifies that problem. Pierce will find a hole after Palhares has pulled guard and he will finally have a win that should garner him a top 10 fight again.
Mike Pierce by TKO Round 2
#5 Raphael Assuncao vs #9 TJ Dillishaw
Other than the main event, this is the only fight that might have some implications on the top of a division. Assuncao and Dillishaw are both on a path to a title shot, but one has to get there sooner than the other. This could be a candidate for fight of the night. Both possess good striking and aren't afraid to use it, and as always with the lighter divisions, never-ending gas tanks. Assuncao may have the crisper striking, but I would say it's Dillishaw with that natural one punch power. Which makes it always tough to count him out. Since his only loss on TUF 14 finale he has made it clear that he was not one of those fighters that couldn't get out of the TUF shadow. 4 wins in a row, 3 stoppages, 2 in the first round. Fighting out of team Alpha Male has only honed his already decent striking so he now posses precision with his power.
For Assuncao this might be his only chance. He appears to be at the peak of his career right now. So a loss to a younger, less experienced Dillishaw will not do him any favours. Especially with losses to the elite of the division in his WEC days. It's unfortunate but I think he does great in this fight until he gets hit with one big punch from Dillishaw.
TJ Dillishaw via TKO Round 3
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