Sunday, June 10, 2012

30 for 30 in 30 - Tampa Bay Lightning

**AS OF TIME OF WRITING**

Bik Nizzar: How good is Steven Stamkos? Seriously! That’s all I got to say. This team is fine so long as they have Steven Stamkos.... Then again, this man might think otherwise..... Ooof- It begins and ends with goaltending for this team.
A year removed from a surprising playoff run that led them to a 7th game in the Eastern Conference Finals vs. the Boston Bruins, here they are drafting 10th in the upcoming NHL draft. Needless to say, that is not the encore Steve Yzerman and Guy Boucher were expecting outta this team. Goaltending was the crutch all year with Mathieu Garon being preferred at times to Dwayne Roloson who was erratic at best. They’ve done some things to remedy the play in front of the goal by trading for d-man Keith Aulie to add with Victor Hedman to build on the blue line, but they’re still left with some serious questions to ask themselves. If goaltending is the main problem, what do we sacrifice to keep a window of opportunity open?
The candidates to be in the crease for the Lightning next year have been pointed out. Roberto Luongo, Jonathan Bernier, Anders Lindback, Josh Harding. I don’t know if you wanna be the team that buys into Lindback or Harding, so let’s focus on Luongo and Bernier. Tampa’s biggest piece is Brett Connolly. If you move him, well now you’re sacrificing future secondary scoring, and hoping Marty St. Louis goes another 2-3 years with elite production (his point total went down by 25 pts last year). If Teddy Purcell is actually coming into his own and continues his 2nd half performance (38 pts in 34 games) into next season then that helps. Along with Vincent Lecavlier and Ryan Malone they should be ok for scoring for now, but you always wonder what this team was gonna do when Marty  St. Louis retires? (Doesn’t he just have 1 of those names that you have to say the full name every time? I can’t just say “St. Louis” or “Martin” or “Marty”... it just flows so nicely, Marty St. Louis!!!) The answer USED to be “They’ve got Ashton Carter and Brett Connolly coming”, but they moved Carter for Aulie and if they want a goalie like Luongo or Bernier, it might cost them Connolly... It’s a slippery slope for Tampa.
TJ Molland:  They haven't really left themselves in a good position. There is a lot of money tied up in the offense and it has left little to no room to work on the back end which is just awful. How awful you ask? The worst GAA in the NHL last season (3.39 GA/G). The next closest was Toronto (3.16) a difference of .23 GA/G. In comparison a .28 GA/G difference separated Toronto from 24th place Ottawa. You can't blame one of defense or goaltending because that would be too lenient to one of them. They were abysmal. If we haven't drilled it home yet the free agency market for defenseman/goaltending is not going to solve your problems. So let’s get back to the goaltending options you mentioned then rip apart the defense.
If there is one hope for this team it's Dustin Tokarski. The young goaltender put up decent numbers in the AHL and could finally have his chance with the big club. It's the cheapest, easiest option right now. If you aren't confident in him I think the best options are Bernier out of LA or Lindback out of Nashville. Tough to say what the value of them will be (simple supply and demand could push their value way up) but I don't think it's unreasonable for TB to part with one of their 3 second round picks and maybe a prospect for either of them. Don't know why you were hating on Lindback or Harding, both put up similar numbers to Bernier, and could be just as valuable. Harding could be the toughest to get because I don't know how sold Minnesota is on Nicklas Backstrom for the future and Luongo's contract essentially makes him impossible to move to Tampa.
Bik Nizzar: I disagree that the Luongo contract is impossible to move, but I’ll get into that more in the Vancouver 30 for 30 in 30. What’s really comical about this team is that they had Mike Smith last year, and surprise surprise! Mike Smith is one of the darlings of this year’s playoffs. Now mind you, part of that is thanks to the Dave Tippett system making him look a little better, but it’s funny to see him flourish a season after being in Tampa. I’m not Lindback hater, (who btw, has one of the funnier parody twitter accounts @FakeLindback) I’m actually a fan, but even you have to admit he’s an unproven commodity. I’m not so sure that I’d wanna be the GM who buys into him and putting my job on the line, especially when I have a talented core like Tampa does. Is Lindback or Harding going to be the guy that can get you a cup in the next 2-3 years while you still have Marty St. Louis (see – full name again)? I’d say Bernier presents the most upside but Luongo is the proven piece to get you where you want to be.
*cut to Canuck fans snickering*
It really depends on what Steve Yzerman and the Lightning think they can be. Are they legitimate Cup contenders next year with a goalie? For 2 years? I think they can get back to that place from 2011 if they bring in the right piece. But it could wind up being a short-term gain for long-term pain. Plus bringing in a veteran would be good for Tokarski. If you bring in Bernier and he struggles, then you open up the “goalie controversy” doors.
This team does have two 1st round picks this year (10 and 19) thanks to a shrewd move by Yzerman by acquiring Kyle Quincey for Steve Downie then moving Quincey to Detroit for a 1st rounder (for those keeping score, that’s essentially a 1st rounder for Steve Downie) so I’d like to see them address their defense with the 10th pick (depending how the draft shakes out) and then adding another winger to their prospect cupboard.
TJ Molland: We haven't really touched on the offense because they put up good numbers last year. Numbers can be deceiving though. The Lightning only had 6 players break the 10 goal mark. Not exactly showing depth up front. Now this is the easiest area to fix via free agency (Jiri Hudler, Chris Kelly) for the short term, and for long term you can use your second 1st round pick to get a scoring winger. There is talent in the prospect pool (unlike everywhere else on this team) that will help with that too.
I don't see Yzerman wanting to do the quick fix (like Toronto has tried for years)(yup still hating on the Leafs) after his years of being in the "never-have-to-rebuild-ever....EVER" Detroit system. He will want to build a core that can be competitive year in and year out, especially in a market that can easily be forgotten if they don't constantly stay relevant. I really like what he has done, and think he has a few more surprises up his sleeve (How did he turn Downie in to a first round pick? #magiciansneverreveal). Stanley Cup contender? Probably not. Playoff potential? Likely. See Lecavalier break 100 pts again? You are more likely to see the Blue Jackets make the playoffs.
Bik Nizzar: How did Yzerman turn Downie into a 1st? Easy – Steve Yzerman is a legend.
Sidebar: I’ll defend and promote anything Stevie Y does, because he was my favourite player as a kid and still remains my all-time favourite player.... How much did I like the guy? Ya know when ya play EA Sports NHL... and used to create your own player..... I would give my guy perfect ratings (#JustLikeRealLife #false), and still put me as a 2nd line center on Detroit because even in a video game, nobody should knock Yzerman off the top line.... also the line of Federov – Me – Shanahan was utterly unstoppable.
The offense should be fine; I’m more worried about the long-term plan up front with this team. For now, Stamkos, Marty St. Louis, Lecavalier, Malone, Purcell should be able to carry the load.
It all depends on how they view the team. In their eyes, why can’t they be a Stanley Cup contender? When you have 1 of the best 5 players in the NHL in Stamkos, you should be pushing for that South East Division title every year (also I want to point out that we’re 10 days into this 30 for 30 in 30 and we’ve done 3 South East teams and by tomorrow 3 North West teams.... Sure there’s parity in the league, but where’s the parity in the divisions?). In a 7 game series, Stamkos can single handily win a series on his own. I wasn’t being boastful at the beginning of this just to show a “Condescending Wonka” meme (well – 50/50). He and Marty St. Louis might be the most entertaining pair to watch work together. With some clever drafting and consistent goaltending, this team SHOULD be in the playoffs next year, and a dangerous team to face, unless they continue with these tactics. That was the worst thing of the 2011-2012 NHL Season. BAR NONE.

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