Tuesday, June 26, 2012

30 for 30 in 30 - Vancouver Canucks

**AS OF TIME OF WRITING**

Bik Nizzar: Ahh – finally, 26 days later we’re at the Vancouver Canucks.... Our favourite team, with a fan-base that we are less than fond of (just an important FYI for the readers, I refer to bandwagon Canuck fans as “Canuck Fan” – whereas the real true fans, aka the non-rioters / the don’t leave early ticket holders, are Canucks Fans...... you’ll notice the plural version on both words... it’s an important distinction in understanding the psyche of Canuck Fan vs. Canucks Fans. Canuck fan makes cheering for the team about themselves, whereas Canucks Fans are about the team). Given the distaste we have for Canuck Fan and his/her knee-jerk over-reaction to every single thing this team does – here we enter, to restore some order and balance to how this team should proceed this off-season.

Trading Roberto Luongo has been the move Du Jour for what, 18 months now? It finally looks like it’s gonna come to fruition but the first chance to do so has passed us by last weekend at the NHL Draft. But with his name being bandied about as much as it is, and supposed interest from a few teams, it looks like Luongo’s last act as a Vancouver Canuck was sitting on the bench for Game 5 vs. LA.

What you want back for him? Or even worse, do you even think he is movable?

TJ Molland: Alright I need to preface this article with something Bik, hold on a sec....

Trade Luongo
Fire coach Alain Vigneault
Zach Kassian is a bust
Aaron Rome for Norris!

OK I think I covered all grievances....oh wait: CONSPIRACY THEORY!!!!!!!

Ah yes Canuck Fan you amuse me with your illogical fallacies and crazy mood swings.

Mocking aside.....It is time for Luongo to be moved. Poor guy was never really given credit for how well he played in Vancouver. Makes a few mistakes and that's all people remember him for. It is for his best and the teams best to move him somewhere far away from here.

Originally I thought Tampa Bay was going to be the destination for Luongo, but rumours swirl that Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is not all that interested, and after they traded for Anders Lindback I have a lot of doubt he will end up there. So the next option would probably have to be Toronto.

Schenn was thought to be a key piece if this deal went down, but he has since been shipped to Philadelphia. We did mention in the Toronto Maple Leafs post a few plausible trade options, with Jake Gardiner being a piece we would like to see come back. If I was in charge (GM hat on):

To Toronto:
- Roberto Luongo
- 3rd round draft pick

To Vancouver:
- Jake Gardiner
- Jerry D'amigo

Canucks get a solid defender and a scoring threat on the wing, the Leafs get their goaltender and a pick. Reasonable? Plausible?

Bik Nizzar: Poor guy indeed. I feel bad for the guy that this is what it’s come down to. We used him as a comparable to the Martin Brochu’s, Maxime Ouellet’s, Kevin Weeke’s of the world and we absolutely loved and revered him for it, so we developed an attachment towards him. Yet there was still a bit of a detachment to him, because we had been so let down by him perhaps as a result from that attachment. It seemed like he had a LeBron James like margin of error in the fans eyes. If he wasn’t perfect, he wasn’t doing his job. At the end of the day, Canuck Fan never wanted to go to bat for him because he was never “OUR GUY” in the sense that we didn’t draft him. Cory Schneider is our guy, we drafted him 8 years ago, but we still don’t really know anything about him. We SHOULD, but we don’t have the same connection to him like Montreal has with Carey Price or Pittsburgh has with Marc-Andre Fleury. And I think that’s what makes trading Luongo so weird – we don’t know what sort of unchartered waters we’re going towards, but if we’re left with positive assets from Luongo, it’ll make it all ok.

I don’t think we’re getting anything close to Jake Gardiner from Toronto, or Erik Gudbranson or Jonathan Huberdeau from Florida. I just don’t see it happening. Too valuable of assets, considering Luongo’s contract and age. Apparently the asking price has been ridiculous for Roberto Luongo, because he is still a top 10 goalie (despite Canuck Fan claims that he’s the “WORST. GOALIE. EVER”), and I understand Gillis’ reticence to move such a valuable piece. But the truth is, goaltenders don’t usually fetch a whole lot. And if Mike Gillis thinks he’s getting a blue-chip asset without taking at least 1 bad contract back, then he’s over-playing his hand right now and is going to get backed into a messy corner come August and September. I get not wanting a bad contract back, but it’s not like the Canucks are in a bad spot financially. They’re set up well to eat a bad contract for a year or 2 and be just fine. I think a better course of action is getting 2 lesser prospects and a bad contract. Maximize your return and still take 1 contract back that you can find a way to work into your roster. From Florida I would target D-Man Alex Petrovic and from Toronto I would target Center Joe Colborne. Then fill in “Prospect X” for more organizational depth and “Bad Contract X”. If you can get that, then that’s pretty good,

Also I don’t think the Luongo contract is as bad as everyone is making out to be. Its $6.7 million per year for the next 6 years, and then it completely tails off for the final 4 years which brings down the cap hit. And really, does anyone truly believe that he’s going to play out the full 10 years? This deal is set up so he’d retire in 6-7 years, if not sooner and the Canucks got away with doing this. So with a $5.3 million cap hit for let’s say 7 years, that’s a pretty darn good price for a team. Plus figure in that anybody that takes on this contract, is almost assuredly giving a bad contract back. So that mitigates the damage of the $6.7 million salary. This isn’t really a cap move by the Canucks (although it is a bonus) it’s more of a “We’re ready to move on from you and go to Cory” move.

My asking price too low for Luongo’s return?

TJ Molland: With the market the way it is I have NO idea. I mean, Sergei Bobrovsky, who isn't even a top 15 goaltender in this league, fetched a 2nd and two 4th round picks. So guessing the goalie market really depends on how desperate the team wanting a goalie is. What you are asking for is not too low I don't think. And really the Canucks don't NEED to trade Luongo, it's just really beneficial to move his contract.

Not too many free agents departing this summer. Of note we have Schnieder (RFA), Mason Raymond (RFA), Sami Salo (UFA) followed by some depth players and future Norris candidate Aaron Rome (UFA). Schnieder is a must sign, and a MUST sign before they deal Luongo. You don't want to move Luongo and have some other team offer sheet Schnieder to a ridiculous contract you are more-or-less forced to sign him too.

Salo would be great to have too if he comes at a discount. The man is a threat on the PP while still being responsible in his own end. He can be a specialist where you limit his role and his ice time to fully maximize what you get out of him. The $2 million he was paid last year would be about the max I would give him again this year.

Personally I would let Raymond walk. There just isn't room on this team for him. He is too soft on the puck and has never really blossomed into the scoring threat management had hoped. I will cut him some slack for coming off a broken back, but he just doesn't have a spot that suits him on this team. He isn't being properly utilized and it would be better if he was gone.

And yes Bik I fully anticipated this rattling your feathers....

Bik Nizzar: Last year was a complete write off in terms of Mason Raymond’s development. Just forget about it. Forget cut him some slack; in fact forget his on-ice product for just a minute. The man FRACTURED A VERTABRAE AND WAS BACK PLAYING PROFESSIONAL HOCKEY 6 MONTHS LATER!!! This wasn’t a muscle tear that requires time and you can get back out there. The mental aspect of the recovery is what’s so devastating about this. When Tom Brady came back from a devastating knee injury, Erik Cole when he returned from his crushing neck injury and dozens of dozens of other players who have gone through severe injuries of this magnitude, they stated that it takes longer than just the physical recovery time to get over an injury. You need to get used to getting hit again. This isn’t a video game where we just plug n’ play players on a whim, there’s a mental toll to it and I think it showed a lot last year in his play. He’s shown that he can pop in 25 goals as he did 2 years ago, and he didn’t necessarily play like a power forward, but he used his skill-set to his advantage and was able to generate himself chances. The following year he struggled a bit at the start and suddenly found himself on the 4th line with Jeff Tambellini ahead of him. He got jerked around onto all the lines and stunted a follow-up from his break-through year.

I’m not gonna pretend to defend how he played last year cause what I saw was basically a frightened played who hung around the outside, refused to initiate or take contact, and was pushed over quite easily. But it’s not a fair shake to use last year as his barometer for what he can do. He couldn’t do any work over the summer to develop his game. No on-ice work and no weight work for a developing 25 year old player is basically kryptonite. Factor in no training camp to develop any rapport or chemistry with his teammates, and then having to play catch up for game speed in December. I’m not ready to give up on one of the fastest players in the league, on a team that needs to play with speed, and isn’t a moron in his own zone. But THIS YEAR has to be it for him. If it’s the same song n’ dance, then by December cut ties with it. Plus players drafted out of the NCAA Players tend to take a TAD longer to come along (see Kesler, Ryan or Higgins, Chris for close to home proof of that) so giving him that one extra, but final year, is fine by me.

I don’t know if I would bring back Sami Salo even at $2 million. The Canucks are rumoured to be in play for 22 year old UFA Justin Schultz and he’s looking for a top 4 role, if you bring back Salo, you might not be able to snag Schultz, who I’d rather have considering he’s also an offensive defenseman. Unless Salo prepared to take about $1 million plus a 3rd pairing role, I think that’s the only way you bring him back.

What’s this team missing to you though? It’s back to back President Cup winning seasons (a completely meaningless achievement by the way, and something Canuck Fan loves to celebrate for some reason) and yet here we are, still looking for Cup #1.

TJ Molland: They aren't missing much. They could probably use another second line winger to play with Kesler, but only at the right price. If we free up cap space with a trade of Roberto Luongo, and don't have to overpay for Schultz, I think the Canucks should look at Brad Boyes. He is coming off a sub par year in Buffalo (8 goals 23 points) but I think given the right line-mates (Kesler and David Booth) he could get back to his 30+ goal scoring self (career high is 43 so he has the skills). It would take pressure of the Sedins and allow the Canucks role players to be role players instead of trying to jump into a second line scoring role.

So since it's the Canucks I figure we might as well do our dream lineup (realistic of course) for the start of the season. I'll go first:

Sedin - Sedin - Burrows
Booth - Kesler - Boyes
Higgins - Lapierre - Hansen
Kassian - Malhotra - Pinizzotto - Brad Winchester

Bieksa - Hamhuis
Edler - Schultz
Tanev - Ballard
Alberts - Salo

Schnieder
Chris Mason

The Canucks just need to figure out how to stay healthy through the playoffs and finally get over the hump. Some added toughness in the bottom six (hence the Winchester signing) would stop teams from taking shots at our better players. Oh and you will notice no Mason Raymond....because I still stand by what I said. He just doesn't fit here.

Bik Nizzar: Considering that all of those wingers, Booth, Higgins, Hansen, Kassian, Boyes are extremely streaky scorers.... why exactly can’t Raymond be a part of that group? You know Alain Vigneault is gonna rotate wingers on that line like no tomorrow and all 4 of them are gonna see time on different lines. It’s an inevitability with AV. The problem I have with that 2nd line is that there’s no play-maker. No guy who can harness the puck and look for his teammates. That’s why that line doesn't tick for me. Mikael Samuelsson was that guy 2 years ago, he might be a sniper but he could also find his teammates well. Kesler is best when he’s in his straight line transition game, Booth is a power forward who’s going to produce just based through sheer volume of shots and work rate... but who is going to distribute the puck on that line? I honestly think Booth could be a trade candidate. I know he was a recent addition but that was when we didn’t have Kassian who EVENTUALLY has to go into the top 6 role, otherwise that Cody Hodgson trade was completely pointless. And losing Booth’s contract frees up even more money for the off-season when we need to re-sign Alex Edler. I don’t necessarily think you have to add anyone up front, but I think you’d be better served going after Ray Whitney, if he hits free agency. I know John Tortorella is high on him, but if Brandon Prust makes it to July 1st I think you look at him.

One of my biggest peeves about this team and specifically the Gillis era has been their neglect to spend high picks on defenseman. How and WHY they passed on Kelowna D-man Damon Severson in the draft is beyond me considering he was sitting right there for them in the 2nd round. I cringed when I got to the Tanev/Ballard pairing and then seeing Alberts as the 7th guy. Defensemen get hurt in the NHL, it’s the nature of the position. Moving Luongo has to bring in a defenseman.... HAS TO. Just so the team can shore up the depth at the spot. If Edler goes down or Hamhuis, look at how everything shakes out. It’s disgusting and scary. I’m going to add in UFA Greg Zanon. He’s a beast at blocking shot’s, a low maintenance no nonsense d-man, who can fit on that 3rd pairing and is a hometown guy.

Sedin – Sedin – Burrows
Booth – Kesler – Kassian
Raymond – Lappiere – Higgins
Hansen - Malhotra – Prust

Bieksa – Hamhuis
Edler – Schultz
Zanon – Tanev
Ballard – Alberts

You’ll notice I left Ray Whitney off the list, mainly because I think he re-signs in Phoenix but also because we need to see what Kassian can do in a top 6 role. If you’re able to bring in Whitney, then Booth still strikes me as a likely trade candidate. Also one other free agent that I didn’t mention, that would be great for this team, Jason Arnott – I’d like to see some leadership brought in. Show this team how to win. He could fit in anywhere in the bottom 6, and considering Manny Malhotra got demoted to the 4th line last season and really struggled to find his game, could be a more than adequate replacement.

TJ Molland: I actually could dig Zanon in Vancouver. He brings a lot to the table for what would be a reasonable contract. I still wish we could get that elite #1 defenseman though. You know, that Chara, Weber, Pronger, Lidstrom type guy. That defenseman EVERYONE covets. That defenseman that would make any team better. That guy.

Jason Arnott presents an interesting option. He gives us another decent face-off man and also some size in the bottom 6. He can interchange between lines seamlessly and add an extra element to the power-play. The guy is responsible in his own end too finishing below even in +/- once in the last ten years. Now that I think about it I actually really like the idea of signing him.

One area that could also be addressed is some depth in the minor leagues. The Canucks are known for poor drafting and a weak prospect pool. If Gillis can make some moves to add a few prospects (like when you trade Luongo) it would shore up the future for this team. Then we wouldn't have to constantly be talking about free agents filling roster holes.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Blah, blah, blah, Canucks out in first round, blah..