Friday, September 21, 2012

Bik's Picks Week 3: Simulating Madden 13


If you read yesterday’s piece (click here if you didn’t.... just try not to pay attention to the pick *gulp*) you saw that I demanded that NFL Coaches play EA SPORTS Madden to better understand clock management skills. So I’m going to back up my talk and use Madden 13 as a comparison for my picks this week. ESPN does Madden 13 Simulations every week and so far this season the simulator is 17-15 in picking winners this year. As it happens I’m 17-14-1 after 2 weeks. Let’s see how this goes:

Home Team is in CAPS 

PANTHERS (-3) over Giants
Giants won 36-7 on Thursday Night.

BEARS (-7.5) over Rams
Madden Simulator picks Bears 24 – 17: Off to a good start, well kind of. C’mon Simulator, the spread is 7.5. Sam Bradford has look pretty decent so far, but guess what. He hasn’t really had to face any dominant pass-rush. In comes Juluis Peppers who is salivating at the prospect of facing this depleted offensive line. It’s so riddled with injuries the Rams may as well take out an ad on craigslist looking for someone that is 6’6”, 300lbs.

Buccaneers (+8) over COWBOYS
Madden Simulator picks Buccaneers 24 – 21: The simulator and I are simpatico through 2 picks. Now I don’t know if the Bucs actually win this game, but 2 scores vs. a team that’s giving up a lot of yardage on the ground seems a bit much. Bucs have been underdogs 3 weeks in a row and have covered as well.

49’ers (-6.5) over VIKINGS
Madden Simulator picks 49’ers 27 – 16: The 49’ers defence looks absolutely impenetrable. Just about as stalwart of a group you are going to see. They have just devoured 2 elite offences in Green Bay and Detroit, and nothing against Minnesota but they are far from an elite offence (despite having an Elite RB). Eventually I’m going to have to go against the simulator, right?

Lions (-3.5) over TITANS
Madden Simulator picks Lions 27 – 17: This game feels a solid point or 2 lower than it should be given that the Lions offence looked so futile vs. the 49’ers. But the Titans look futile in general. If there is ever a game Chris Johnson needs to break out for the Titans, it’s this one. He has 21 yards on the ground through 2 weeks... but has 23 yards after contact. Do the math on that for a second and scratch your head.

Bengals (+3) over REDSKINS
Madden Simulator picks Bengals 30 - 27: The Redskins are not going to be able to exploit the Bengals inability to keep Andy Dalton upright (10 sacks through 2 games) since they have lost Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker for the season. They’re averaging 2 sacks a game, and the Bengals should feature a better running game than the ‘Skins have faced. RGIII will have to wait to win a home game.

Jets (-2.5) over DOLPHINS
Madden Simulator picks Dolphins 23 – 20: Darelle Revis was cleared for contact and upgraded to probable for this Sunday’s game. And the simulator thinks Reggie Bush is going to rush for 117 yards vs. the Jets. With Revis in the lineup the defence is completely different and could create short fields for that meek Jets offence leaving less work for Mark Sanchez to do.

SAINTS (-9) over Chiefs
Madden Simulator picks Saints 31 – 17: It’s brutal to take the Saints in a 2 score game because they can’t seem to stop anybody but the Chiefs haven’t exactly been solid defensively either and do you want to be sitting there on Sunday hoping Matt Cassell can keep up to Drew Brees in a shootout? This would be a fun game to play in Madden.

Bills (-3) over BROWNS
Madden Simulator picks Bills 28 – 23: I find it hilarious that the football world is already anointing CJ Spiller as the new CJ2K or CJ2K2.0 despite the fact its only 2 games into the season. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been remarkably impressive and should continue his hot start vs. Browns, but how’s about we actually wait for him to get 2000 yards.

COLTS (-3) over Jaguars
Madden Simulator picks Colts 24 – 17: Andrew Luck Bandwagon Population: 545,810,337. Kid looks sharp. He looks EXACTLY OPPOSITE of what Blaine Gabbert did last year. If the Jaguars can get their run game going they might be able to topple this, but when in doubt I’m going to go with the QB. I trust Luck more.

Eagles (-3.5) over CARDINALS
Madden Simulator picks Eagles 28 – 20: This is purely out of spite. I’m determined to go against the Cardinals until they show everyone who they actually are. PULL BACK THE CURTAIN ARIZONA!!! And eventually Mike Vick realizes “hey wait – so if I don’t turn the ball over 3 times a game, I don’t have to conjure up last minute drives to win games?”... Right? Please tell me he realizes that and breaks this Cards streak.

CHARGERS (-3) over Falcons
Madden Simulator picks Falcons 27 – 23: I know what you’re thinking... Really Bik? You’re picking the Chargers to start the season 3-0? Come on now.... And I hear you, I really do. But I think this is the Phillip Rivers we expected LAST year and didn’t get. He went out in week 2 without Antonio Gates, without Ryan Mathews and also he lost his best wide receiver in Vincent Jackson in free-agency... His performance? A casual 284 yards, 3 TD’s, and a 75% completion rate... no big deal. Falcons also on a short week travelling cross-coast.

Texans (-2.5) over BRONCOS
Madden Simulator picks Broncos 31 – 23: The luster has now worn off from Peyton Manning and his arrival in Denver and some harsh reality has set in. The Simulator isn’t factoring 4 neck surgeries. Manning is 0-5 with 3 INT’s on throws past 20 yards and the Texans have the ability to get to the QB to put pressure on Manning if he needs to throw deep. Also the best way to keep Peyton in check is to keep him off the field... Texans might feature best run game in the league, and unlike the Steelers in Week 1, they’ll be able to finish off drives.

Steelers (-3.5) over RAIDERS
Madden Simulator picks Steelers 20 – 10: We all saw Dolphins torch the Raiders D right? I’m not thrilled with picking a Steelers team that won’t have Polamalu or Harrison on its defence but how can we trust the Raiders to stop anybody?

RAVENS (-2.5) over Patriots
Madden Simulator picks Patriots 35 – 21: Going against Bellichick after a loss is always dicey, but the Ravens are genuinely going to be fired up to rectify last year’s playoff game. For the last 5 years these teams have played close games (the 1 blowout was Ravens 33-14) and the Patriots seem to be slightly askew. Wes Welker fantasy owners will know about that considering he didn’t even take to the field until 4 minutes into the 1st quarter. They will right the ship eventually but Sunday night, I’m going Ravens.

Seahawks (+3) over Packers
Madden Simulator picks Packers 31 – 21: I’m between a rock and a hard place on this pick. I’m a Seahawks fan, and I have Aaron Rodgers in multiple fantasy leagues. But as my allegiances theory goes, Seahawks > Fantasy. The ‘hawks play much different at home than on the road (if you need evidence of that, figure out how they lost to Arizona in Week 1 and then trounced Dallas in Week 2). The defence was flying all over the place against Dallas and set the tone. With the 12th man behind them, it gives the ‘hawks the best home-field advantage in the league.

Also want to point out that I made it through this entire feature without mentioning the replacement refs.... Apparently there are no replacements in Madden 13.

Last week: 10-5-1
Season: 17-14-1

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