Bik's Week 4 Picks: Replaced?

Following the debacle that was Monday Night Football, you probably heard 2 *thuds*. It was near impossible to not hear it because both were so loud and so evident.

The first was every fan’s palm meeting their face.... the second was Roger Goodell’s heart sinking to the ground. After ticking for 47 games, the bomb that was his gamble for replacement refs finally blew up in his face on Game 48 of the NFL Regular Season with the entire continent watching on Monday Night Football no less. Twitter erupted, his office number was posted, and his e-mail was released by a Wisconsin radio station. Pandemonium. The world had witnessed enough.

We were provided an imperfect variable that muddied a seemingly pristine product. The integrity of the game was put into such a state of disrepute it was hard to take anything the league said or did without laughing at it. Looking back over 3 weeks, it’s hard to determine if what we saw was actually the truest result of the game. How much bearing did the replacement refs actually have over the game? So the world tweeted, updated their facebook, created memes, gifs, and whatever we could conjure up to voice our displeasure and showcase the hilarity of the situation. The evidence continually piled up against the replacement officials and it tipped the scales heavily in favour of a return for the regular officials. Yes the replacement officials were bad, but they were put into a position that they were destined to fail. They were forced to decipher plays 3 or 4 times the speed they had been used to. It was a no-win situation for them, and they were unfortunately mocked and relegated to punch-lines. But really it wasn’t their fault, the winners (or losers) of the blame game was the League Office.

Through the ineptitude of the replacement refs, suddenly the regular officials were held in such high regard. As if we couldn’t live without them. They were flawless without having made a call in the 2012 season. It altered how we perceive fantasy football; it altered hundreds of thousands of bets made in Vegas. The decision to go with replacements played into our fan experience. The impurity that the replacements brought was made to be 1 end of the spectrum and shifted the perception of what an official actually is: Human. Officials are going to make mistakes. That’s just the nature of the position. Some mistakes are more glaring, some are innocuous. You can’t be perfect at it. You can only be inconspicuous about your job. But nobody stopped and asked “Are the regular officials actually worth what they want to be paid?” What we saw was roughly a $10 million difference in a $9 billion industry and since it was directly disrupting our enjoyment, it was just assumed the NFL should just pony up the cash and give the refs, and subsequently the viewing public, what they wanted. Sure in 1 regard we couldn’t tolerate the standard of officiating that was being provided for us, but the imperfect variable is always going to exist. Officials are only human. It’s inevitable that an official will miss something. It could be a small holding incident that allows a QB to get a crucial 3rd down conversion that extends a drive or it could be a deep pass interference call that looked innoncent. There's an episode in "The Wire" when Lester Freamon says "All the pieces matter...", of course it set the tone for the show and its intricate detail but its relative to the NFL as well. A drive extending 3rd down can change the course of a game and swing momentum. Officialls will miss calls, and all the pieces matter in a game. The standard will undoubtedly be raised but brace yourself for what is still imperfection. It may not be as blatant as it was in Week 3, but a call by an official can still shift the balance of a game, and it might just happen during the stretch drive towards the playoffs. Careful what you wish for.

As for the incident itself, I think it’s the best thing that could have happened to the two teams. More on that below. Onto the rest of the Week 4 Picks.

Home team in CAPS.

Browns (+12) over RAVENS

Ravens won 23-16 on Thursday Night.

Patriots (-4) over BILLS

No way and I mean NO WAY are the Patriots going to be 1-3. Simple as that. Watch out for Gronk, in 4 career game vs. Bills: 22 receptions – 314 yards - 7 TD’s Add in the fact Bills are likely to be without new fantasy super-star CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, leaving it to Ryan Fitzpatrick to duel Tom Brady. Good luck Harvard boy.

Vikings (+4.5) over LIONS

What if Christian Ponder is good? What if Vikings are that surprise team that nobody picked pre-season and continually fly under the radar? What if the Lions were due for a regression after their breakout season last year? What if the Lions get behind in this game (as they apparently like to do) and AP just churns yardage and time off the clock? Even if the Lions make a dramatic late game comeback, AGAIN, it still might come down a field goal... 4.5? Sure.

FALCONS (-7) over Panthers

Figuring that Houston has played Miami and Jacksonville, and Arizona won 2 of their games by a combined 6 points, the Falcons might be the best undefeated team. They put a whooping on San Diego on the road and get to come back home, aka Matt Ryan’s house. Meanwhile the Panthers looked confused to say the least last Thursday against the Giants and hardly look ready for primetime. A divisional matchup against a power-house isn’t the best remedy to rectify the situation.

49ers (-4) over JETS

Thank you Minnesota. With their upset win over the 49ers, this line might have been pushed down a bit. Especially without Revis Island in the lineup for the Jets. As soon as Darrelle Revis was out of the game, The Dolphins offence played with no fear. With Revis in, they turned the ball over twice in 2 plays - 1 of which was a pick 6. The only reason that game was even close was TERRIBLE offensive play-calling by the Jets and well, let’s face it, Mark Sanchez doing Mark Sanchez things (and by that I mean launching the ball 15 feet over receivers heads on 8 yard out routes).

Chargers (-1) over CHIEFS

This feels lower than it should be thanks to Jamaal Charles performance against the mediocre Saints Defence. Chargers were over-matched against the Falcons but now find themselves in a more familiar spot vs. an AFC West opponent. Chiefs still don’t look like they can get consistent stops considering they’re playing a bend-but-don’t-break defence.

TEXANS (-12) over Titans

Jake Locker actually looked like a viable NFL QB last week against the Lions. Mind you it was against a Detroit defence that hardly looks like it can slow down an Old Granny with a Cane carrying 2 bags of groceries on a drizzly Thursday afternoon. Seriously how do you give up not 1, not 2, not 3, not 4, but 5 TOUCHDOWNS OF OVER 60+ YARDS IN A SINGLE GAME?!? Texans much more disciplined with their coverage’s.

Seahawks (-2.5) over RAMS

Seattle became the beneficiaries of a dubious call from Monday Night and just for a minute, forget about the “getting the win” aspect. The best thing that came out of the blown call is that the Seahawks get to remain under the radar as people question the validity of their win. The defence however signalled its arrival with 8 sacks on Aaron Rodgers, and the Rams finally faced a viable pass-rush last week and gave up 6 sacks. Low-scoring tight game, but anything less than a field goal I’ll take.

CARDINALS (-5.5) over Dolphins

I had every intention of picking against the Cardinals every week until I was finally correct but I also didn’t look at their schedule. Fiiiiiiine – I’ll buy it now. With no Reggie Bush, 2 young running backs, a rookie QB and a stout Defence... I’ll finally have to pick for the Cardinals against the ‘Fins. By the way, how awesome was Dolphins Kicker last week? Missing 2 field goals that could have won the game for the ‘Fins... The only thing missing was him yelling irately at his holder “LACES OUT!!!”

BRONCOS (-6.5) over Raiders

Solve this one for me: Drew Brees (0-3), Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Matt Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger (all 1-2).... Kevin Kolb (3-0)..... Manning does this one on his own and gets himself back to .500.

Bengals (-2.5) over JAGUARS

How do you make a statement right out of the gate? Oh just have your rookie Wide Receiver launch a 40+ yard pass to AJ Green on the games 1^st play from scrimmage and score a TD. That’s what the Bengals did last week and I love it. No fear... They take to the road against a Jags team who I’m trying to figure out how they won last week.

PACKERS (-8) over Saints

And Green Bay gets to channel their inner 2007 Patriots mode and string together a gigantic “@$%* The Establishment” season towards Roger Goodell and the league for handing them a loss. They looked to be stuck in 2^nd gear for much of the opening 3 weeks. Well they got kicked in the teeth and the sleeping giant might have just been woken up.

BUCCANNERS (-2.5) over Redskins

Right when you think Tampa has let you down, Josh Freeman pulls it back in. ANOTHER backdoor cover, and now they’re the favourites at home. RG3 is just on an island by himself right now. Protection is faltering, he’s taking hits, the defence has lost its mojo without Orakpo and Carriker. Josh Freeman, step right up!

Giants (+1.5) over EAGLES

I made the brutal error in forgetting the Giants were on the road. I won’t make that mistake again. Getting points with the G-Men away from home, in a divisional matchup they need (already 0-1 on the year for divisional play). Plus Mike Vick is giving the ball away like he’s Publishers Clearing House. Seriously Mike, you know your job is to distribute the ball to your team-mates right?

COWBOYS (-3.5) over Bears

Oh boy – it’s really a coin flip between “Deer in the Headlight QB’s”. Now put them both on Monday Night with equal 2-1 records. If you haven’t checked out http://smokinjaycutler.tumblr.com/ yet – you’ve missed out on a lot and need to redeem your life right now. The momentum generated from this page is only going to heighten his ego and blow smoke up his --- well you get the idea. But actually the Cowboys improved pass Defence will force a turnover from Cutler. Romo will make less mistakes.

This Week: 1-0

Last Week: 7-8-1

Season: 24-22-2