The first full weekend of NFL Football is finally here after
that Wednesday Night game. A Thursday night game is always
great because once it’s done you only have to get through a mild Friday workday
before the weekend is upon you and football is back on the TV. Friday is full
of water-cooler talk of how great the game was. We play “Armchair Quarter-Back”
and break down the game to see how we would have done it differently. And it makes
Friday go by even faster. Yet here we are, nearly 48 hours removed from the
kick-off to Week 1 and it’s still only Friday. Well thanks a lot Barrack Obama.
Thank you very much. Thanks to the Democratic National Convention and that big show-piece,
we’re left to go 88 hours without seeing 22 men on a gridiron. I’m not
necessarily rooting against you (especially considering I have no vote) but if
you do lose the election, you can point to this moment as to why the voting
public turned against you. It’s a big gamble and a big risk to pull a stunt
like this and it could be damaging beyond repair. If only I had an empty chair nearby
to ask you personally...
Now onto the rest of the Week 1 Picks
Home Team is in CAPS
GIANTS (-4) over Cowboys
Cowboys won on Wednesday Night 24-17...
BEARS (-10) over Colts
Is there a quarterback more polarizing than Jay Cutler?
There’s something about him that wants me to root both for him and against him.
It’s his ability to throw a ball at brilliant levels that makes me want to root
for him, and his smug look that makes me want to root against him. Just keep a
helmet on Jay.... Also, go google jay
cutler and click on the 1st link --- *mind blown*.... This game has
super hyped rookie QB Andrew Luck in his first game... on the road... in
Chicago... WELCOME TO THE NFL ANDREW! I know the Bears defence is old, but its Week
1, they won’t show their age yet. Colts are terrible, I mildly fear a backdoor
cover here if the Colts wind up throwing late in the 4th, but I’ll
still take the 10.
Eagles (-9) over BROWNS
So let me get this straight. We have a 28 year old ROOKIE QB
in Brandon Weeden. Trent Richardson, rookie running back, needed his knee
scoped in training camp and didn’t take a snap in any pre-season game. The
defence’s best cornerback is suspended... And I’m supposed to CONSIDER the 9
points? Pass. All of this without mentioning the Eagles daunting front line, an
improved defence, a healthy Jeremy Maclin and happy DeSean Jackson to start the
year. I think the only way this doesn’t cover is if Michael Vick gets hurt and
that almost NEVER happens... *he says while praying*
Bills (+3) over JETS
J-E-T-S! JETS JETS JETS! And now that I’ve gotten that out
of my system I can continue on by hating on the Jets. Does anybody REALLY think
that this 2 QB idea is going to work? This
was the back of the NY Post on Tuesday. That about sums up the Jets right
there. A coach that puffs his chest out despite having no results to show for
it, a QB that is thought so little of – the team needed to go out an acquire
another QB who has a completion rate of *drum-roll please* 46.5%!!!!! Even
though he may be QB Jesus, I still can’t wait for this to implode. Meanwhile the
Bills went out and signed Mario Williams, one of the best pass-rushing
defensive ends in the game, to help an already emerging defensive front with
Marcel Dareus and Kyle Williams. Now as much fun as I make of the Jets offense,
their defence is absolutely stout. However in today’s NFL you need to score points
and the Bills simply have more weapons than the Jets do.
SAINTS (-7) over Redskins
Would you really want to be the 1st team that has
to go into Drew Brees’ house after Bounty-Gate and Hurricane Isaac? He’s put an
entire city and team on his back before; he’s going to do it again starting in Week
1 with the visiting Robert Griffin III. How many commercials has RG3 been in? I
can’t seem to get him off my TV. Mike Shanahan is a good coach but there is
still going to be some growing pains with RG3 initially. Especially since the
Redskins also drafted QB Kirk Cousins in the 3rd round after having
already selected RG3 and were forced to split each players time on the field
in pre-season, a move that would surely hinder their development. Tom Brady can take
the pre-season off... You can’t RG3. At least not yet.
Patriots (-5) over TITANS
Here’s the story on Titans starting QB Jake Locker. It's his
1st start in the NFL after watching Matt Hasselbeck run the Titans
offense last year. He’s super athletic, a great leader, and has a strong arm.
All sounds good right? Except his
accuracy is mildly erratic inside the pocket. About 51.5% in the pros. And I
know what you’re thinking – “well that’s in limited work.” Sure, but going back
to college he peaked at 58.5% in his Junior year then dipped back to 55.4% in
his Senior year. The guy on the other side of the ball has a super-model wife, has
a contract that guarantees him $48.5 million dollars, and is also in this commercial (any
chance to make fun of the Jets is a good chance taken)... And he does this all
because he’s REALLY REALLY GOOD at throwing a football. Tom Brady in warm
weather and less than a TD spread? Where do I sign up?
Jaguars (+3.5) over VIKINGS
I’m being forced to pick a winner in this one. However you
should know that it’s under great protest but TJ insisted that I make a pick. Can
I hold-out from watching this game like MJD held out on his team? Nobody is a
winner if they subject themselves to watching this game. Jaguars with no rhyme
or reason to the pick... Let’s just move on.
TEXANS (-12) over Dolphins
A number that high frightens me. Not because I can’t count
that high (double-checking......... success!) but because having morphed into a
run first team thanks to fantasy football super-duper star Arian Foster and a
great run-blocking scheme. With a clock being drained on running plays late in
the game + the possibility of a back-door cover by the Dolphins, this has all
the makings of a trap game. But it’s just SOOO difficult to take the +12 on the
road with rookie QB Ryan Tannehill, whose claim to fame is his gorgeous wife
rather than his football skills, plus no real threats at wide-out. And I know,
I know I’ve used that rookie QB excuse 3 times already, but how can I take Ryan
Tannehill – arguably the worst rookie QB that is starting (although Brandon
Weeden is going to give him a run for that title), all while going against a
very stingy defence that LET MARIO WILLIAMS WALK (yes
that needed to be bolded, italicized and underlined) because they have
incredible faith in Brooks Reed, JJ Watt and Connor Barwin to generate their
pass-rush. Gotta force myself to believe this’ll be a 2 score game.
LIONS (-7.5) over Rams
The Rams might be vying for the “loveable losers” title that
the Lions held for so long. But they’ve done some pretty cool things this
off-season. Bringing in the best coach available in Jeff Fisher, signing
cornerback Cortland Finnegan and drafting highly talented but controversial corner
Janoris Jenkins. It remains to be seen how this will all play out given that this
new era stars this Sunday, but this will be QB Sam Bradford’s 3rd
season and wouldn’t you know it – also his 3rd offensive
co-ordinator. Ask Alex Smith how mixing up coaches worked for him. And who have
they brought in? The same man that was fired from the Jets for his inability to
make Mark Sanchez look competent running an NFL offense, Brian Schottenheimer!
I’m also happy to pass along this note: The last time these 2 teams met and
Matt Stafford was healthy, the Lions won 44-6.
Falcons (-2.5) over CHIEFS
Trust me, I feel dicey taking Matt Ryan on the road as well,
ESPECIALLY in Arrowhead, but I think I have to. The Chiefs have 3 players
coming back from major knee injuries. Running Back Jamaal Charles, Safety Eric
Berry and Tight End Tony Moeaki (who also qualifies for the “Cool Names to Say
Team”... Mo-e-aaakiiii... try it) and they get to open at home. But no Tamba
Hali, a secondary that lost Brandon Carr to free agency and a defence that has
to slow down Roddy White, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner, Jacquizz Rogers
and oh my god I’m tired of listing weapons. By all accounts, the Falcons are
finally ready to open up the offence since they have the horses now for Matt
Ryan. His passer rating drops by 18 points when he hits the road but this
weekend isn’t going to be the blistering wind, torrential downpour of December that
KC can offer... It’s going to be sun-tan weather. GTL Matty-Ice (I feel kinda
dirty writing GTL... ugh what have I done). GTW (get the win) Matty-Ice. There –
life saved.
BUCANEERS (+2.5) over Panthers
Last season the Chiefs pulled off a great victory against
the Packers ruining their perfect season in a game that had “Our last coach got
fired and we’re trying for this game” stench all over it. Well the Bucaneers
never fired their coach last season and instead dragged Raheem Morris for the
entire season. The team quit on him en route to a 10 game losing streak. Enter
Greg Schiano. A breath of fresh air for a young team that needs it. Tampa were
also big spenders in free agency acquiring maybe the best guard in football in
Carl Nicks plus wide-out Vincent Jackson from the San Diego Chargers. But a team
under a new regime starting at home versus the new face of the NFL in Cam
Newton. If there was ever a reason to be fired up for a game, this would be it.
I’m not sold on the Panthers yet... look at their final 6 games last year: 2
wins vs. a TB team that was ready to burn its coach, a win vs. a hapless Colts
team, a win @ Houston playing TJ Yates and not Matt Schaub @ QB. That’s it. Cam
Newton is good if not great. But I’ll take the home-team with the points.
PACKERS (-4.5) over 49’ers
Ohhh man – the marquee matchup of the weekend and a
potential preview of the NFC Championship game. Did you know Alex Smith only
threw 5 INT’s last season? I get being conservative but COME ON!!! HE’S ALEX
SMITH! The 49’ers went out and got deep threats Mario Manningham, Randy Moss,
and drafted AJ Jenkins to help give some speed and vertical ability to this
offence. I don’t think you go and get those pieces without wanting to open up
your offence a little, something Alex Smith didn’t have to do much of last
year. He threw all of 5 touchdowns on the road last year. That’s .625 TD Passes
a game on the road. Meanwhile on the other-side of the equation is the guy San
Francisco WISHES they drafted 1st overall, Aaron Rodgers. His stats
in Lambeau Field? 24 TD’S! And 6 INT’s all season. You could add Alex Smith’s
TD’s and INT’s multiply it by 2, and it still wouldn’t equal Aaron Rodgers TD
total from last year. I know the 49’ers defence is *read the following in Tony the Tiger voice* GREAT... but it’s a QB
League and that absurd turnover differential the 49’ers had last year is going
to come down a bit, and they’ll be hard-pressed to snag a pick from Rodgers on
Sunday.
Seahawks (-2.5) over CARDINALS
How do you inspire faith in your team? Well here are two
models. These 2 teams waited long into the pre-season to name their starting QB’s.
1 team waited because both QB’s performed above expectation and made the
decision difficult for the coaching staff, but ultimately decided on the QB who
performed the best and resonated with his teammates. The other team was stuck
in a lose-lose situation because both QB’s played so poorly. Kevin Kolb and
John Skelton had a QB rating average of 50.1, which ranks in the range of
mediocre to “wait – do that math again please...” These teams are trending in
opposition directions, and while the Seahawks are starting a rookie QB (I was
going to have to pick 1 eventually), he will be asked to do the least amongst
the 5 rookie pivots. The defence will shoulder the load while the running game does
the work offensively.
Steelers (+1) over BRONCOS
Here are some things that I know: The New York Giants won
the Super-Bowl, Tom Brady is better at basically everything than I am and The
Pittsburgh Steelers are always amazing on defence.
Here are some things I don’t know: Quantum Physics, people’s fascination with
Jersey Shore, and the health of Peyton Manning’s neck.
4 off-season neck surgeries doesn’t perk me up when I see -1
in a re-match of the AFC Playoff game when QB Jesus knocked off the Steelers. 1
school of thought is “well if Tebow could do it – SURELY Peyton can.” And I get
that, totally. But for starters, The Steelers are going to be pissed right off
over what happened. They get to go back into Mile High and amend some things
that went wrong. Secondly, until I can be certain that Peyton is in perfect
full health, I’m going to stay away from him.
Bengals (+6.5) over RAVENS
Sometimes you just have to go with your gut. I think the
Ravens win this game, but the natural progression of this Bengals team has to
have them cover this. They lost all their games against teams that finished
.500 or above, and they start the season off with a real test. I’m going to say
they buck the trend, plus the football gods are going to keep punishing Joe
Flacco for his fu man chu
that he sported last year.
Chargers (+1) over RAIDERS
If Phillip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers could just
start a season quickly and get things rolling the way they finish seasons, this
would be so much easier. I suspect Rivers wasn’t entirely healthy last year
which played a part in his season, but he did manage to torch the Raiders to
end last season to the tune of 310 yards, and 3 TD’s. It also took extensive
google’ing to find out who the Raiders were playing at cornerback. I’m talking
like 5th page google’ing. I find myself asking more questions about
the Raiders than the Chargers, and I think the answer is found there. This should
be a close game to end Week 1 for sure.
Season 0-1-0
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